Most likely results in every Premier League match in Gameweek 5, according to statistics - (2025)

Updated: 14/06/2025
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It’s almost GameDay on talkSPORT and we can’t wait for the return of the Premier League after a long international break.
We’ve got live commentaries of three matches across Saturday, with Liverpool vs Newcastle (12:30pm) and Norwich vs Man City (5:30pm) both LIVE on talkSPORT, while the London derby between Tottenham and Crystal Palace (3pm) is LIVE on talkSPORT 2.
Getty Images – Getty
With the campaign just four games old it’s already clear a that a similar trend to last season is being followed, with pace-setters Liverpool and Man City blowing teams apart thus far.
But it doesn’t stop people from trying to predict how the games will pan out, with statistics being used more and more.
One such producer of these is FiveThirtyEight – but what outcomes do they think will happen? Find out below.
Liverpool vs Newcastle – Saturday 12.30pm – live on talkSPORT
Liverpool win – 85 per cent chance of happening
Newcastle win – 3 per cent chance of happening
Draw – 12 per cent chance of happening
Getty Images – Getty
Brighton vs Burnley – Saturday 3pm
Brighton win – 41 per cent chance of happening
Burnley win – 31 per cent chance of happening
Draw – 28 per cent chance of happening
Manchester United vs Leicester – Saturday 3pm
Man United win – 54 per cent chance of happening
Leicester win – 22 per cent chance of happening
Draw – 24 per cent chance of happening
Getty Images – Getty
Sheffield United vs Southampton – Saturday, 3pm
Sheffield United win – 40 per cent chance of happening
Southampton win – 33 per cent chance of happening
Draw – 27 per cent chance of happening
Wolves vs Chelsea – Saturday, 3pm
Wolves win – 29 per cent chance of happening
Chelsea win – 46 per cent chance of happening
Draw – 25 per cent chance of happening
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace – Saturday, 3pm – live on talkSPORT 2
Tottenham win – 65 per cent chance of happening
Crystal Palace win – 14 per cent chance of happening
Draw – 21 per cent chance of happening
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Norwich vs Manchester City – Saturday, 5.30pm – live on talkSPORT
Norwich win – 7 per cent chance of happening
Man City win – 79 per cent chance of happening
Draw – 14 per cent chance of happening
Bournemouth vs Everton – Sunday, 2pm
Bournemouth win – 36 per cent chance of happening
Everton win – 39 per cent chance of happening
Draw 25 per cent chance of happening
AFP or licensors
Watford vs Arsenal – Sunday, 4.30pm
Watford win – 29 per cent chance of happening
Arsenal win – 48 per cent chance of happening
Draw – 23 per cent chance of happening
Aston Villa vs West Ham – Monday, 8pm
Aston Villa win – 40 per cent chance of happening
West Ham win – 34 per cent chance of happening
Draw – 26 per cent chance of happening
Saturday is GameDay on talkSPORT and talkSPORT 2 as we become your go to destination for all the Premier League action.
We’ll bring you LIVE commentary of Premier League games across all three time slots on Saturday – 12.30pm, 3pm and 5.30pm – delivering award-winning coverage to more GameDay listeners than ever.
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