Champions League Predictions

Expected goals: Galatasaray 2.13 · Aston Villa 1.74.

Estimated outcomes: home 47.4%, draw 20.7%, away 31.9%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Bodø/Glimt 1.62 · LASK 1.18.

Estimated outcomes: home 47.4%, draw 24.6%, away 28%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Real Madrid 1.95 · PSV 1.21.

Estimated outcomes: home 54.6%, draw 22%, away 23.4%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Man City 3.04 · Napoli 1.71.

Estimated outcomes: home 64.6%, draw 15.9%, away 19.5%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Arsenal 2.04 · Dortmund 1.26.

Estimated outcomes: home 55.3%, draw 21.3%, away 23.4%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Feyenoord 2.19 · Porto 2.

Estimated outcomes: home 43.5%, draw 20.1%, away 36.3%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Sl. Bratislava 1.86 · Real Betis 2.02.

Estimated outcomes: home 36.2%, draw 21%, away 42.8%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: RB Leipzig 2.13 · RC Lens 1.6.

Estimated outcomes: home 50.1%, draw 20.8%, away 29.1%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Como 1907 3.38 · PAE AEK 1.33.

Estimated outcomes: home 76.3%, draw 12.6%, away 11.2%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Sabah FK 2.13 · Barça 1.84.

Estimated outcomes: home 45.4%, draw 20.6%, away 34%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Slavia Praha 2.39 · Villarreal 2.2.

Estimated outcomes: home 43.9%, draw 19.2%, away 36.9%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Inter 1.87 · Stuttgart 1.74.

Estimated outcomes: home 41.7%, draw 21.9%, away 36.4%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Atleti 2.11 · Viking 1.33.

Estimated outcomes: home 55.2%, draw 20.9%, away 23.9%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: PSG 2.96 · Roma 1.6.

Estimated outcomes: home 65.5%, draw 16%, away 18.5%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Club Brugge 2.57 · Liverpool 2.29.

Estimated outcomes: home 45.7%, draw 18.5%, away 35.8%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Lille 2 · Bayern 2.52.

Estimated outcomes: home 31.3%, draw 18.9%, away 49.9%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Sporting CP 2.57 · Man United 1.44.

Estimated outcomes: home 62%, draw 18%, away 20%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Shaktar 2.64 · Fenerbahçe 1.26.

Estimated outcomes: home 66.7%, draw 17%, away 16.3%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Villarreal 2.52 · Sabah FK 1.78.

Estimated outcomes: home 54.1%, draw 18.8%, away 27%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Viking 2.88 · Feyenoord 1.44.

Estimated outcomes: home 67.2%, draw 16%, away 16.8%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Barça 2.34 · Man City 1.55.

Estimated outcomes: home 55.4%, draw 19.6%, away 25%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Aston Villa 2.46 · PSG 2.12.

Estimated outcomes: home 46.7%, draw 19%, away 34.3%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Bayern 2.55 · Slavia Praha 1.33.

Estimated outcomes: home 63.8%, draw 17.8%, away 18.4%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Napoli 2.14 · Club Brugge 2.18.

Estimated outcomes: home 39.3%, draw 19.8%, away 40.9%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Roma 1.9 · Sporting CP 1.74.

Estimated outcomes: home 42.4%, draw 21.8%, away 35.8%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Man United 3.21 · RB Leipzig 1.33.

Estimated outcomes: home 74%, draw 13.6%, away 12.4%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: PAE AEK 2.13 · Galatasaray 1.87.

Estimated outcomes: home 44.7%, draw 20.5%, away 34.7%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Real Betis 2.14 · Como 1907 2.47.

Estimated outcomes: home 34.7%, draw 19%, away 46.4%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Sl. Bratislava 1.62 · Shaktar 1.54.

Estimated outcomes: home 39.8%, draw 23.6%, away 36.6%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Arsenal 2.49 · Real Madrid 1.86.

Estimated outcomes: home 52%, draw 19%, away 29%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Dortmund 1.99 · Inter 1.74.

Estimated outcomes: home 44.3%, draw 21.4%, away 34.3%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: PSV 1.75 · Atleti 1.46.

Estimated outcomes: home 44.5%, draw 23.2%, away 32.3%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Liverpool 2.64 · Porto 1.85.

Estimated outcomes: home 55%, draw 18.3%, away 26.7%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: RC Lens 2.28 · Bodø/Glimt 2.7.

Estimated outcomes: home 33.8%, draw 18.1%, away 48.1%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: LASK 3.36 · Fenerbahçe 1.74.

Estimated outcomes: home 68.8%, draw 14.4%, away 16.8%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Stuttgart 2 · Lille 1.08.

Estimated outcomes: home 58.7%, draw 21.3%, away 20%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Bodø/Glimt 1.62 · Atleti 1.08.

Estimated outcomes: home 49.8%, draw 24.8%, away 25.4%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Galatasaray 2.26 · Feyenoord 1.44.

Estimated outcomes: home 56.1%, draw 20%, away 23.9%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.26 · LASK 1.46.

Estimated outcomes: home 55.6%, draw 20%, away 24.4%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Inter 2.41 · Liverpool 2.48.

Estimated outcomes: home 39.5%, draw 18.6%, away 41.9%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 72 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.