Premier League Predictions

Expected goals: Man City 1.42 · Fulham 0.98.

Estimated outcomes: home 47.3%, draw 26.8%, away 25.9%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Chelsea 1.71 · Leeds United 1.05.

Estimated outcomes: home 52.8%, draw 24%, away 23.3%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Aston Villa 1.84 · Sunderland 1.3.

Estimated outcomes: home 50.2%, draw 22.8%, away 27.1%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Bournemouth 1.59 · Nottingham 1.

Estimated outcomes: home 51.2%, draw 25.1%, away 23.7%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Tottenham 1.98 · Ipswich Town 1.5.

Estimated outcomes: home 48.9%, draw 21.8%, away 29.4%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Coventry City 1.79 · Crystal Palace 1.13.

Estimated outcomes: home 52.8%, draw 23.3%, away 23.9%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Newcastle 0.95 · Arsenal 1.19.

Estimated outcomes: home 29.2%, draw 29.3%, away 41.5%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Hull City 1.31 · Brighton Hove 1.56.

Estimated outcomes: home 32%, draw 24.7%, away 43.3%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Liverpool 1.19 · Man United 1.

Estimated outcomes: home 40.3%, draw 29%, away 30.7%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Brentford 1.46 · Everton 0.75.

Estimated outcomes: home 54.1%, draw 26.7%, away 19.2%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Nottingham 1.09 · Chelsea 1.

Estimated outcomes: home 37.3%, draw 30%, away 32.7%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Leeds United 1.69 · Coventry City 0.67.

Estimated outcomes: home 61.9%, draw 23.6%, away 14.5%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Man United 1.81 · Brentford 1.7.

Estimated outcomes: home 41%, draw 22.2%, away 36.7%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Ipswich Town 1.57 · Aston Villa 1.52.

Estimated outcomes: home 39.3%, draw 23.9%, away 36.8%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Everton 1.19 · Liverpool 1.47.

Estimated outcomes: home 30.8%, draw 25.8%, away 43.5%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Fulham 1.69 · Bournemouth 1.75.

Estimated outcomes: home 37.5%, draw 22.5%, away 40%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Brighton Hove 2.46 · Newcastle 0.76.

Estimated outcomes: home 74.8%, draw 15.7%, away 9.5%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Sunderland 0.8 · Tottenham 0.75.

Estimated outcomes: home 33.4%, draw 36%, away 30.6%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Crystal Palace 1.31 · Hull City 1.58.

Estimated outcomes: home 31.6%, draw 24.6%, away 43.9%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Arsenal 1.57 · Man City 1.07.

Estimated outcomes: home 49.1%, draw 25.2%, away 25.7%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Coventry City 1.98 · Ipswich Town 1.88.

Estimated outcomes: home 41.5%, draw 21.1%, away 37.4%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Liverpool 1.57 · Sunderland 1.2.

Estimated outcomes: home 46%, draw 24.9%, away 29.1%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Hull City 1.59 · Nottingham 1.1.

Estimated outcomes: home 48.8%, draw 24.9%, away 26.2%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Chelsea 2.52 · Crystal Palace 1.05.

Estimated outcomes: home 69.2%, draw 16.9%, away 13.8%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Man City 1.54 · Leeds United 0.98.

Estimated outcomes: home 50.5%, draw 25.6%, away 23.9%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Aston Villa 1.13 · Everton 1.08.

Estimated outcomes: home 36.6%, draw 29%, away 34.3%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Brentford 1.23 · Arsenal 0.83.

Estimated outcomes: home 45.6%, draw 29.5%, away 24.9%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Newcastle 1.4 · Man United 1.08.

Estimated outcomes: home 44.1%, draw 26.7%, away 29.2%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Bournemouth 1.31 · Brighton Hove 1.42.

Estimated outcomes: home 34.7%, draw 25.6%, away 39.7%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Tottenham 1.12 · Fulham 0.9.

Estimated outcomes: home 40.4%, draw 30.5%, away 29.2%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Chelsea 1.57 · Liverpool 1.87.

Estimated outcomes: home 32.8%, draw 22.3%, away 44.9%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Man United 2.04 · Coventry City 1.28.

Estimated outcomes: home 55%, draw 21.4%, away 23.6%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Leeds United 1.98 · Ipswich Town 1.13.

Estimated outcomes: home 57.1%, draw 21.6%, away 21.2%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Bournemouth 1.31 · Hull City 0.83.

Estimated outcomes: home 47.7%, draw 28.5%, away 23.8%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Aston Villa 1.66 · Crystal Palace 0.98.

Estimated outcomes: home 53.5%, draw 24.4%, away 22.1%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Nottingham 0.95 · Brighton Hove 1.42.

Estimated outcomes: home 25.3%, draw 26.9%, away 47.8%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Brentford 1.57 · Man City 1.2.

Estimated outcomes: home 46%, draw 24.9%, away 29.1%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Newcastle 1.84 · Sunderland 1.3.

Estimated outcomes: home 50.2%, draw 22.8%, away 27.1%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Everton 1.19 · Fulham 0.83.

Estimated outcomes: home 44.5%, draw 30%, away 25.5%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.

Expected goals: Tottenham 1.02 · Arsenal 1.1.

Estimated outcomes: home 33.1%, draw 29.8%, away 37.2%.

Calculated using home/away goal scoring and conceding rates from 100 completed competition matches, with smoothing and a Poisson goal model. Recent form is shown for context, not used separately in the calculation. Injuries and line-ups are not considered.