Surprise Choice: American Robert Francis Prevost Selected as New Pope, Defying Betting Odds - (2025)

Updated: 12/06/2025

After the death of Pope Francis on April 21, the attention of many turned to speculating on who would be the next leader of the Catholic Church. While bettors had favored Cardinal Pietro Parolin as the next pope, the actual selection by the 133 cardinals in the papal conclave had a different outcome. American Robert Francis Prevost was chosen as the new pope, highlighting the unpredictability of such events.

Despite the online bets indicating Cardinal Parolin as the frontrunner, the ultimate decision surprised many, harkening back to when Jorge Mario Bergoglio became Pope Francis in 2013 despite initially being an outsider in the betting markets. This showcases how the gambling odds can differ significantly from the actual selection process undertaken by the cardinals in the Sistine Chapel.

Statistics Professor's Insights

Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University, offered valuable insights into the dynamics of election outcomes and betting predictions. Crane noted that while the conclave betting markets may not match the accuracy of those predicting highly data-backed events like elections, they do serve to narrow down the pool of potential candidates.

“Does it have more predictability than if you just picked one out of 130 cardinals, and you gave them all the same chance of winning? I would say ‘yeah probably.'” – Harry Crane, Rutgers University Statistics Professor

Leading Candidates for the Papacy

Several notable cardinals emerged as strong candidates for the position of Pope following Francis' passing. Each potential successor brought their unique background and attributes to the table, garnering attention both within the Catholic Church and from global observers.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin

Position: Vatican diplomat

Nationality: Italian

Age: 70

Details: Parolin served as Francis' secretary of state and is viewed as a compromise candidate representing both progressive and conservative factions.

Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle

Position: Former archbishop of Manila

Nationality: Filipino

Age: 67

Details: Tagle, known as the “Asian Francis,” shares a commitment to social justice and would be a groundbreaking choice as the first modern-era pope from Asia.

Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson

Position: Vatican official; president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace

Nationality: Ghanaian

Age: 76

Details: Turkson, with a background in congregations in Ghana and Vatican leadership roles, stands as a potential first pope from sub-Saharan Africa.

Matteo Maria Zuppi

Position: Archbishop of Bologna

Nationality: Italian

Age: 69

Details: Zuppi, nicknamed “the Italian Bergoglio,” mirrors Francis' values, focusing on aiding migrants and the less privileged, making him a prominent contender.

Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa

Position: Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem

Nationality: Italian

Age: 59

Details: Pizzaballa's peace advocacy in the Middle East has drawn attention, despite his youth potentially posing a challenge in the papal selection process.

Cardinal Peter Erdo

Position: Former president of the Council of Bishops Conferences of Europe

Nationality: Hungarian

Age: 72

Details: Erdo, recognized as a theological conservative yet pragmatic figure, is seen as a potential compromise candidate who has maintained a steady relationship with Francis.

Conclusion

In the intricate world of papal succession, factors ranging from public perception and betting odds to the unpredictable nature of the conclave process all play significant roles in determining the next leader of the Catholic Church. While speculation and anticipation run high, the decision ultimately lies in the hands of the cardinals gathered in the Vatican's Sistine Chapel, aiming to select a pope who will lead the faithful in the footsteps of his predecessors.

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