Betting Frenzy: $19M Wagered on Next Pope as Conclave Looms - (2025)

Updated: 16/05/2025

With the upcoming papal conclave set to commence on May 7th, anticipation and speculation are running high as to who will be the next pontiff to lead the Roman Catholic Church. Betting markets such as Polymarket, Kalshi, and Betfair have already seen a significant surge in activity, with punters collectively wagering a staggering $19 million on predicting the next pope. This amount dwarfs the figures from the previous conclave in 2013 when Jorge Bergoglio of Argentina emerged as Pope Francis. The intrigue surrounding the selection of the next pope has a rich history dating back centuries, with even cardinals themselves being tempted to place bets on potential successors.

The Fascinating History of Papal Betting

The practice of betting on papal elections is not a recent phenomenon. Roman banking institutions were engaging in wagering as far back as 1503, showcasing the enduring allure of this age-old tradition. An intriguing tale involves 16th-century cardinal Alessandro Damasceni Peretti di Montalto, who reportedly placed a ten-to-one bet on Niccolo Sfondrati of Cremona to become Pope Gregory XIV. The cardinal's extraordinary actions, including keeping a staff of musicians on standby for impromptu performances at his palace, highlight the intrigue and politics that have historically surrounded the papal election process.

While modern-day cardinals claim their voting decisions are guided by divine inspiration, today's bettors analyze more tangible factors to determine the potential outcome of the conclave. Considerations such as the candidates' seniority, diplomatic background, pastoral experience, and the prevailing direction of the Roman Catholic Church all play a role in shaping the odds provided by prediction markets.

Front-Runners in the Papal Race

Current speculation points towards several prominent figures as leading contenders for the papacy. Pietro Parolin, the Vatican's secretary of state, emerges as the frontrunner with a 25% chance of being elected as the next pope. Close behind Parolin are Luis Tagle of the Philippines and Peter Turkson of Ghana, both representing regions where Catholicism is experiencing rapid growth. Matteo Zuppi, known for his role as the Holy See's peace envoy to Ukraine, also stands as a significant candidate in the eyes of bettors. This diverse field reflects the global nature of the Roman Catholic Church and the potential for the next pope to represent various regions and viewpoints.

The Element of Surprise

Despite the current favorites, bettors are keeping a watchful eye on the possibility of an unexpected candidate emerging triumphant from the conclave. Market analysts assign a 6% chance for a surprise selection, suggesting that the race for the papacy remains open to the element of unpredictability. This element of surprise adds an additional layer of excitement and intrigue to the proceedings, underscoring the complex dynamics at play within the Vatican walls.

The Secrecy of the Conclave

As the conclave convenes behind closed doors, strict protocols govern the voting process. The 135 electors, barring exceptional circumstances, are prohibited from any external contact under penalty of excommunication, as are individuals present within Vatican City during the conclave. This stringent isolation ensures the integrity and secrecy of the papal election process, preserving the solemnity and confidentiality of the proceedings.

In the rare event that a voting round fails to produce a pope, the outcome is announced through a visual cue – billowing black smoke emanating from the cardinals' burned ballots. This time-honored tradition maintains the suspense and anticipation surrounding the selection of the next spiritual leader of the Catholic Church.

A Glimpse into Past Conclaves

Looking back at the 2013 conclave, revelations emerged that shed light on the secretive nature of the papal election process. Midway through the voting rounds, media reports divulged insights into the leading candidates, including Jorge Bergoglio, who eventually ascended to the papacy as Pope Francis. This breach of confidentiality hinted at potential leaks within the conclave, prompting speculation and scrutiny from observers and bettors alike.

Traders on platforms such as Betfair in 2013 initially failed to react swiftly to the leaked information, highlighting the challenges of navigating uncertainty and shifting dynamics within the papal selection process. With the stakes higher in the current conclave, market participants are poised to remain vigilant for any indications of insider information influencing betting patterns.

Relevant news