Astros vs Twins MLB Lines, Betting Analysis & Prediction

Updated: 03/06/2023

The Minnesota Twins will be looking to get back in the win column after having their four-game winning streak emphatically snapped on Tuesday night. Can the Twins hold it down at home or are the visiting Houston Astros the better pick despite being on the road? Let’s find out right now.

Astros vs Twins MLB Lines, Betting Analysis & Prediction

Starting Pitchers

  • Astros RH Collin McHugh (3-2, 4.78 ERA)
  • Twins LH Martin Perez (3-0, 4.44)

Why Bet On Houston?

Houston cruised to an overpowering 11-0 shutout win over Minnesota on Tuesday as George Springer, Jake Marisnick and Alex Bregman all homered to help the Astros improve to 3-1 over their last four games. Josh Reddick and Michael Brantley each had three of Houston’s 15 total hits while right-hander Gerrit Cole tossed seven shutout innings while striking out 11.

“Swung the bats very, very well,” Astros manager AJ Hinch said. “Gerrit Cole was exceptional. Put those two things together, and we’re going to win.”

For this contest, Houston will hand the ball to right-hander Collin McHugh. The veteran limited Cleveland to three runs on four hits in 5.2 innings of work in his last start. The 31-year-old has allowed 12 earned runs in his last two starts, but he’s also an encouraging 3-1 with a 2.86 ERA in seven career appearances (five starts) against Minnesota.

Team Statistics


  • Runs: 4.77
  • Hits: 9.10
  • Walks: 3.83
  • Strike Outs: 7.53


  • Runs: 3.50
  • Hits: 6.47
  • Walks: 2.47
  • Strike Outs: 9.47

Houston Astros MLB Betting Trends

  • Astros are 21-8 in their last 29 games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Astros are 44-20 in their last 64 vs. American League Central.
  • Astros are 35-16 in their last 51 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Astros are 13-6 in their last 19 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Astros are 63-30 in their last 93 road games.
  • Astros are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Astros are 1-4 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Why Bet On Minnesota?

Are the Twins a safe bet in the MLB lines?

The Twins had won four straight until Tuesday night, but they’ve been pretty hot in bagging seven of their last 10 games overall. Max Kepler had two hits and Jonathan Schoop added Houston’s only other hit in the loss.

“Once he (Gerrit Cole) started pitching with his fastball and doing what he wanted to with it, he had our number,” Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said. “He was able to take over the at-bats and command those at-bats.”

For this matchup, Minnesota will hand the ball to southpaw starter Martin Perez. The 28-year-old has allowed just one run in two of his three starts this season, including a six-inning, six-hit outing against Baltimore on Friday. Perez is 6-4 with a 3.00 ERA in 11 career starts against Houston. Unfortunately, 2017 AL MVP Jose Altuve is 11-for-34 with six doubles against Martinez.

Team Statistics


  • Runs: 5.22
  • Hits: 8.63
  • Walks: 3.00
  • Strike Outs: 7.48


  • Runs: 4.59
  • Hits: 8.52
  • Walks: 3.30
  • Strike Outs: 8.37

Minnesota Twins MLB Betting Trends

  • Twins are 9-2 in their last 11 games following a loss.
  • Twins are 8-2 in their last 10 during game 3 of a series.
  • Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
  • Twins are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.
  • Twins are 5-2 in their last 7 Wednesday games.

Expert Analysis and Prediction for Astros vs Twins

Houston has won just five of its last 11 games while Minnesota has heated up a bit recently. Having said that, I’m going to urge you to back the Twins to get the win tonight behind a fine effort from Martin Perez. The Astros are 16-7 in their last 23 games and 9-4 in Collin McHugh’s last 13 starts, but the Twins are 5-1 in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning record, an encouraging 9-2 in their last 11 games following a loss and 8-2 in their last 10 games against a right-handed starter. With the Twins having gone 39-17 in their last 56 home games and 4-1 in their last five games, I like Minnesota to scratch out the hard-fought win in this one!

MLB Betting Pick: Minnesota 4 Houston 3

This post first appeared here

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