Bundesliga ACCA: Bayern get ready for a bounce-back blitz
In a familiar pattern, last time out I clocked three out of four predictions on the Bundesliga games, keeping up a great strike rate for the season — but after a lengthy international break, a perfect four-from-four would be welcome.
This time out we’re looking to a couple of teams who lost their last match to provide a big reaction, starting with struggling duo Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich.
Bayer Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart
Friday, 23 November, 19:30
Leverkusen were extremely disappointing last time out in a 3–0 defeat to RB and they have no option but to bounce back at home to the bottom club. They have conceded the same number of goals as their Friday night opponents (24 goals) and things will not be easy as a result.
Stuttgart, however, already look doomed: the joint-lowest scorers in the league, the joint-fewest victories and rock bottom of the table.
A win at fellow strugglers Nürnberg was a welcome boost, but it won’t signal a dramatic change of fortunes.
Leverkusen have to look at their upcoming run of matches as winnable, three in succession, to lift them back into the top half — starting with this one. Backing them at home remains the sensible option this weekend, despite just one win in five so far.
Bayern Munich vs. Fortuna Dusseldorf
Saturday, 24 November, 14:30
Bayern lost der Klassiker in an astonishing performance against Dortmund. It also meant they lost touch with the leaders at the same time; there’s a seven-point gap to the top now and Niko Kovac’s side don’t even occupy a top four place heading into the weekend.
They remain the biggest threat to Dortmund’s hopes of landing the title, but can ill afford further slip-ups and performances like last time out at home when the drew 1–1 against Freiburg.
Fortuna Dusseldorf at the Allianz is the best way to bounce back.
Earlier in the season Bayern were comfortably putting several goals past sides at home and we’ll back them to do the same against struggling Dusseldorf. Fortuna have conceded 13 goals in their last three away matches and look for at least four goals to be scored in the match.
Hertha Berlin vs. Hoffenheim
Saturday, 24 November, 14:30
Hertha’s good start to the season has dissipated somewhat, but they’re boosted by the return from injury of key on-loan midfielder Marko Grujic. Some positive home results mean they can be confident of troubling Hoffenheim this weekend, in what is effectively a battle for a European spot.
Without a win in five league games, though, it would be overly optimistic to back the home side for victory; instead we’ll look to die Hoffe’s propensity for involvement in exciting matches for our tip.
Every single one of Hoffenheim’s five away matches this season have seen at least three goals scored and both teams having netted during the 90 minutes — and that’s exactly what we’ll be expecting this weekend once more.
A 1–1 scoreline wouldn’t be a surprise by form, statistical patterns or player quality.
Schalke 04 vs. Nürnberg
Saturday, 24 November, 17:30
Our final pick of the weekend sees two of the basement clubs battle it out on Saturday evening, both just outside the relegation zone and struggling for regular wins.
S04’s troubling season continues to perplex, but after beating Hannover at home a couple of weeks ago they’ll be confident of pushing for another three points against another side below them.
They’ve not been impressive on home soil, just four goals and two wins from five games, but Nürnberg’s own form on the road is even worse: no wins and a massive 17 goals conceded in five games.
That’s the area to look at for our final tip, as we back Schalke to do something they’ve managed in both their last two wins: score at least twice.
Recommended Bundesliga ACCA
Back Bayer Leverkusen @ 8/15
Back Bayern Munich & Over 3.5 Goals @ 8/13
Back Both Teams to Score in Hertha vs. Hoffenheim @ 4/9
Back Schalke Over 1.5 Goals @ 8/11
Total ACCA Odds: 6.25/1
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