2016 US Open Number of Aces served?
2016 US Open: How many Aces will be served?
Predicting the variety of aces at the 2016 United States Open
Serving an ace is one of the most celebrated statistics in tennis and a terrific method for a player to take easy points. With the US Open around the corner, how many aces should we be anticipating in the upcoming Grand Slam? Tennis professional, Dan Weston, takes a look at past data to find out exactly what statistics suggest.
Aces served between 2010-2015
The listed below table shows the variety of aces in the US Open from 2010 to 2015, along with the number of aces per tennis game and the service hold portion for each year:
The variety of aces varied from 1,894 in 2011, to 2,771 in 2015, with the six-year mean figure being 2354.17. There is a small general pattern for the number of aces in the event to increase. The stats show that there is an extremely slight higher serve orientated player dynamic in the last couple of years.
It's also totally rational that there is a connection in between the service hold percentage and variety of aces per game. In the four years where the service hold portion was above 79%, the variety of aces per tennis game was highest at 0.53 or higher.
Moreover, it is possible to see that with the mean aces per game over the six-year period being 0.53 and the mean service hold portion being 78.3%, there is an average of 147.74 service hold percentage indicate one ace per game.
For example, if we expect the mean service hold percentage to be 70%, the anticipated aces per tennis game would be 0.47 (70/147.74), whereas if we expected the mean service hold portion to be 80%, we ‘d anticipate the aces per tennis game figure to be 0.54 (80/147.74).
Aces served in 2015 and 2016
Given this, we can take a look at the entry lists for 2015 and 2016, and aim to predict the variety of aces based on this, using similar ratios. Effectively, if we know the mean combined hold percentage for the entry list in 2015, we can then compute the exact same expectation for those with direct entry in 2016.
In the table above, we can see that the mean combined hold percentage for direct entrants in 2015 was 79.04% and these players balanced 0.51 aces per video game. This is almost identical to the actual service hold portion of 79.1%, although 0.63 aces per game were in fact yielded in 2015.
Nevertheless, this might well be an outlier, provided that no other year came close to that figure, as seen in the very first table above. Certainly the 0.51 aces per game to 79.1% mean hold percentage expectation is very much like the 2010, 2012 and 2014 figures.
Anticipating the variety of aces for the 2016 United States Open
The anticipated aces per tennis game in the 2016 direct entry list is still 0.51, but the anticipated hold percentage has actually increased to 79.22%, from the 79.04% in the 2015 direct entry list. On this basis, we can state that this year's field is just a little most likely to be serve-orientated in contrast to in 2014.
Using the ratio talked about above, we can anticipate 0.536 aces per video game with an expected hold percentage of 79.22%, whilst in the very first table we saw that the typical number of games in the men's occasion from 2010-2015 was 4,425.
Multiplying the typical number of tennis games by the anticipated aces per tennis game, we create a figure of 2371.8 aces expectation in the 2016 US Open; a shade over the 2354.2 mean figure from 2010-2015.
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