York 3:35 Nunthorpe Stakes Tips – Bacio Can Confirm Royal Ascot Brilliance

The Coolmore City Of Troy Nunthorpe Stakes is one of the highlights of the York season and this year's renewal brings together an intriguing mixture of established Group 1 performers, international contenders and some potentially improving younger horses.

The vote goes to Bacio, who has the potential to confirm the brilliance he showed at Royal Ascot.

Tip: Bacio — best available price 7/2 at the time of writing

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Bacio arrives with an obvious question to answer because all of his turf runs have come on good or faster ground.

However, there is plenty to like about his chance if he can handle the change in conditions.

The Wesley A Ward-trained colt was heavily supported when making his handicap debut over 5f at Royal Ascot and delivered in spectacular fashion, racing prominently and keeping daylight between himself and his rivals.

That performance resulted in an excellent RPR of 116, while his official rating has now risen to 114.

The most important aspect is that he didn't simply scrape home at Ascot. He looked to have the race under control and showed the speed and professionalism required to dominate a competitive field.

York should also suit his front-running style.

The big unknown is the ground. Showers have left the going at good to soft, and this represents a completely different test from the fast surfaces he has previously encountered.

If he proves equally effective, however, he could have too much speed for this field.

Main Danger: American Affair

American Affair is a major threat and arguably the runner with the strongest recent form credentials.

He won the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2025 and has gradually returned to his best after almost a year off.

His latest performance was particularly encouraging as he landed a Group 2 at Glorious Goodwood, suggesting he is now back towards his peak.

He also has an excellent relationship with today's conditions.

His record includes three wins from seven starts on good to soft or similar ground, while he has won six of his 16 starts over the distance.

Perhaps most importantly, he has already won over this course and distance.

He is now 6lb higher than when successful here in May 2025, but his Goodwood victory suggests that his current mark is not an insurmountable obstacle.

At around 15/2, he looks a serious alternative to the favourite.

Rayevka Has Strong Group 1 Form

Rayevka has a particularly strong case on her best form.

She followed a Group 3 victory at Longchamp on soft ground by going desperately close in the King Charles III at Royal Ascot.

That Ascot performance puts her firmly into the argument here.

She was beaten only narrowly by Mission Central, although the race worked in favour of the stands' side and Rayevka came from off the pace.

Her recent form has been good enough to earn a career-best RPR of 121, which is the highest figure in this field.

The concern is that her tendency to come from behind could make life difficult at York, where tactical positioning can be crucial in a 5f sprint.

Nevertheless, she has the form to win this if the race unfolds in her favour.

Mission Central Has Something To Prove

Mission Central was the horse who narrowly denied Rayevka at Royal Ascot.

He had previously started the season with two Listed victories over 5f and appeared to be progressing rapidly.

His King Charles victory was impressive, particularly considering the way he charged up the stands' side to get the better of Rayevka.

However, his subsequent run in the July Cup raises a question.

He failed to reproduce his Ascot form over 6f and was eased down, meaning he now needs to show that performance was merely a blip.

If back to his best, he has every chance.

Ryan Moore is another obvious positive, and A P O'Brien's recent record is respectable, with the stable operating at a 22% strike rate over the last 14 days according to the supplied statistics.

Asfoora Is A Proven Group 1 Performer

Asfoora brings some outstanding historical form to the race.

She famously won the King Charles III at Royal Ascot in 2024 before adding two more Group 1 victories in 2025, including this race.

She also handles softer ground, having won the Prix de l'Abbaye on very soft ground last year.

Her 2026 campaign has not quite reached those heights, but she was not far away at Royal Ascot and subsequently went down narrowly to American Affair at Goodwood.

That latest defeat actually makes her interesting at around 12/1, particularly if the rain continues to fall.

The question is whether she retains enough of her peak ability at the age of eight to defeat this younger generation.

She certainly cannot be dismissed.

Pershaada Could Be The Big Threat From The 2yos

Pershaada is one of the most interesting runners in receipt of a substantial weight allowance.

The Richard Hannon-trained filly has improved with each of her three turf runs at 5f and produced a particularly taking performance when winning a Group 3 at Goodwood.

She had to wait for a run that day but still picked up impressively.

Her current RPR of 119 puts her right among the leading contenders on figures.

The obvious advantage is the weight.

She receives a substantial amount from the older horses, and in a sprinting championship that can make a significant difference.

She is unproven at this level, but there is every reason to think she could improve again.

Value Angle: Starlust

At around 20/1, Starlust is the one who makes most appeal at a bigger price.

He finished a close third in this race in 2024 before going on to win the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint over 5f.

He has also won on good to soft ground, so the expected conditions should not be an issue.

His recent career has been a slow process of rebuilding his form, but his close fourth behind Redorange in a C&D Listed race in July was much more encouraging.

That run came in a race where he wore a first-time visor, which is now discarded.

He remains below his best on the figures, but his course record and previous Group 1 ability make him interesting at a double-figure price.

Cover Up Could Outrun His Odds

Cover Up is another whose best form gives him a chance.

He travelled strongly in the King Charles III at Royal Ascot before encountering trouble and still finished only around three lengths behind the winner.

He subsequently won a Group 2 at the Curragh, arriving from behind to lead near the line.

That puts him firmly into the equation on ability.

The concern is tactical.

He likes to come from off the pace and that approach can be difficult to execute around York's 5f, particularly if the leaders get racing in a prominent position.

At around 16/1, however, he is not without appeal.

Verdict

Bacio is the selection.

His Royal Ascot victory was the most visually impressive performance of his career and he looked like a horse capable of progressing beyond his handicap mark.

The major concern is the good to soft ground, because all his turf runs have been on good or faster.

However, his speed, front-running ability and powerful Ascot performance make him worth siding with at around 7/2.

American Affair is the main danger after returning to winning form at Goodwood, while Rayevka has the highest RPR in the field and is capable of reversing the King Charles form if the race sets up for her.

Starlust is the value option. His recent C&D run was encouraging, and his previous Nunthorpe and Breeders' Cup form makes him interesting at around 20/1.

Today's Selections

🏆 Best Bet: Bacio — best available price 7/2 at the time of writing

⚔️ Main Danger: American Affair

💰 Value Pick: Starlust

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