Cheltenham Day Four – Gold Cup Friday

Cheltenham 1.30

Given the fairly easy success of Band Of Outlaws in Wednesday’s Fred Winter, Joseph O’Brien probably has as good a steer as anyone on the strength of this year’s juvenile crop so, having gone off SIR EREC a bit in the lead up to the meeting, the better ground on the New Course is likely to make him very hard to beat.

People have been mentioning how he won’t find it as easy to dominate in a bigger field and that his jumping may find him out. Well, on the other hand he is still a very lightly-raced individual with only seven races in his life and for me he is still improving with every run. On his last start on the Flat he got within two lengths of Stradivarius and in two races over jumps he has looked the real deal.

The one who might give him most to do is stablemate Gardens Of Babylon who chased him home at Leopardstown. Paul Nicholls has been making positive noises about Pic D’Orhy but he is making his British debut while stablemate Quel Destin has won his last five.

Cheltenham 2.10

I can’t get used to the County Hurdle not being the last race of the meeting and yet it isn’t even the most recent anymore!

Last year’s winner Mohaayed tops the weights and has already landed another bog prize this season but it will take a monstrous performance to win off 153. We Have A Dream could be the classy runner in the field while Western Ryder has been running well in plenty of good races.

However, I’ve been sweet on the chances of MR ADJUDICATOR for a while and the only decision was whether to back him in this or the Coral Cup. I’m presuming the rain earlier in the week made Willie Mullins’ decision for him. He was a top-class juvenile, winning at Grade One level before just getting beaten in the Triumph.

He’s only had the one run this season when an 11-length second, not bad for a pipe-opener but very good when you realise the horse who beat him, Espoir D’Allen, subsequently went on to win Tuesday’s Champion Hurdle in stunning style. I think the Festival has been the plan all year and he’s been kept fresh purposefully.

You need two plays in a race like this and I can’t get away from Dr Richard Newland’s LEONCAVALLO. I love the trainer and this fellow ran a screamer in the Galway Hurdle which could not have worked out any better. The winner Sharjah has since won two Grade Ones and the likes of Bedrock, Le Richebourg and the favourite for this Whisky Sour in behind. He’s had a run over fences since to protect his mark and is another who comes here fresh.

Cheltenham 2.40

Here it is, I’ve had to wait three and a half days but my nap of the meeting finally gets the chance to prove me right.

I’ve got a bit of a crush on LISNAGAR OSCAR. I’m well aware he’s up against some potentially top-class novices’ like Birchdale, Commander Of Fleet and Allaho, but I thought Lisnagar Oscar could not have done anymore when winning a trial for this race at Haydock. He travelled supremely well, jumped with alacrity and improved massively for the step up in trip.

Curtis actually only ran him at Haydock, a race which for me was the strongest in terms of depth run in this country this season for novices, because she felt he was in danger of being balloted out because his rating was too low. There was no danger of that afterwards as he went up 12lb. He’s improving with racing and he ticks every box.

Cheltenham 3.30

Having chewed over the Gold Cup countless times and gone round and round in circles I’ve decided the safest conveyance is last year’s hero NATIVE RIVER.

Yes, he could probably do with softer ground but he’s once again coming as a fresh horse and for me lost little in his two races this season in races that never looked likely to suit. Haydock’s sharp nature was always going to catch him out in the Betfair but he stayed on nicely for a first run of the season. Then in the King George connections already knew going right-handed wasn’t going to suit and it didn’t.

Any further rain, while also suiting the selection would also be in the favour of stablemate Elegant Escape, who would be really suited by a thorough test but has an almost identical profile to Native River last year having used the Hennessy and Welsh National as prep races.

Presenting Percy is clearly ultra-talented but I’m concerned about not running over fences this season. Clan Des Obeaux has stamina doubts for me. Of the Mullins three I’d favour Bellshill but he’s now nine. Al Boum Photo was well beaten by Presenting Percy last year while Kemboy was surely flattered in the Savills Chase. If he wasn’t he’ll probably win!

Cheltenham 4.10

It would be a good story if Pacha Du Polder could claim the Foxhunter for the third time. He could be going for four but was ridden by Victoria Pendleton first time around when a close up fifth in 2016. There was little to enthuse about in his comeback, though, when beaten a long way by Road To Rome, who has been in fine form this season – as has Hazel Hill. 

It appears to me that CAID DU BERLAIS has been prepared especially for this. Still only 10, he has been a classy chaser for Paul Nicholls in a former life and wasn’t beaten far when fifth in this last year on softer ground. He then went to Punchestown to win there big race, no mean feat taking on the Irish in their own back yard.

Cheltenham 4.50

The claims for Magic Saint are there for all to see in the Grand Annual but he may have just shown his hand a bit early when winning at Wincanton last time out.

Paul Nicholls was still getting to know him early in the season but dropping him back to two miles worked the oracle and he fairly bolted up from a good yardstick in Gino Trail. The 7lb rise is fair yet connections will be kicking themselves as he would have comfortably got in off his old mark.

I like the claims of his stable companion BRELAN D’AS for Bryony Frost, who won on him last time. His Cheltenham record is not inspiring but his latest run at the track was over too far. The main reason for fancying his chances is his victory over Nicky Henderson’s Whatswrongwithyou at level weights at Haydock. He gets 9lb off the same horse today yet is a bigger price.

I’ll also have a saver on Gary Moore’s NOT ANOTHER MUDDLE who appears to be improving at a rate of knots and could be well ahead of the handicapper.

Cheltenham 5.30

The final race of the meeting, and the traditional getting out stakes, is now the Martin Pipe but it looks fiendishly difficult.

It’s probably wisest to keep it simple if you just need a winner and there are not many negatives with DALLAS DES PICTONS. He’s ridden by the best jockey in Donogh Meyler and Gordon Elliott always targets this race as he used to work for Pipe and this horse fits the stereotype of a typical winner of this race.

The likes of Don Poli, Sir Des Champs and Killultagh Vic all won this before turning into Grade One horses and he looks the likeliest to do that in this field. At a bigger price Henry De Bromhead’s DAYBREAK BOY could be the one to get you out of a hole.