Premier League Gameweek 17 Accumulator: Resurgent Cardiff will continue climbing
It’s time for me to do something a little different to recent weeks this weekend. If you’ve been reading my tips articles in weeks gone by, I’ve mostly been backing the win-draw-win markets on tight games. While that’s garnered some decent single and double wins, a winning accumulator has alluded me for some time.
This weekend there are only two matches in the EPL involving ‘clear cut winners.’ Now, that often means there’s some great value to be had on the win single market, but for me this weekend the value is in the Asian Handicap section.
Last weekend was somewhat devastating for me. Despite the fact I correctly backed all three teams to win, Arsenal let us down by a single goal. Not going to lie, it’s slightly annoying that the shortest selection of the three lost, but I take some solace knowing that it was something of a freak result given Arsenal had 16 shots at goal.
With the additional protection offered by Asian Handicap betting will this be the week we return to winning ways?
Watford vs. Cardiff
Saturday, 15 December, 15:00
Well isn’t this just a turn up for the books? After betting against Cardiff for many of the past 17 weeks and backing Watford plenty of times, you’ll be surprised at what I’ve selected.
With a solid 1–0 win against Southampton last weekend, Cardiff have moved up to a season high 14th in the league. Watford, on the other hand, are falling down the league.
If Watford didn’t have such a great start to the season, I bet they’d be relatively happy with their current 12th place. This weekend is huge as losing to Cardiff will put the away side within four points of The Hornets who, lest we forget, were this season’s surprise package not that long ago.
Honestly, the fact the away side are 9/2 despite being in much better form means that the Asian Handicap market allows us to cover our bet. The thinking behind this protection is that, because neither side have been scoring a huge number of goals, if Watford do manage to nick a one goal win, we’re protected.
Huddersfield vs. Newcastle
Saturday, 15 December, 15:00
There’s genuinely only a handful of sides that I’d consider Newcastle to be favourites against away from home on the handicap market and Huddersfield are one of them.
I really can’t stress this enough, but with just one win from their eight home games and three goals in that time (Man City have ten times that amount), I think that almost any team traveling to the Kirklees Stadium believes they can win.
However, this is Newcastle. While three weeks back I would have said this was a banker away win, they’ve lost to Wolves and West Ham in the interim, so they’re not in the best of form either.
Newcastle have scored in most of their away games this season. Throw in the the fact Huddersfield are currently averaging 0.37 goals a game at home and a single goal should be enough.
Rafa Benitez will also know that their next two matches away at Huddersfield and home to Fulham are imperative if they want to break away from the relegation zone. Having looked at their Christmas fixtures, Newcastle could be in trouble if they don’t pick up at least four points from their next two games. Their easiest match after these two is Watford away and they’ll also face Liverpool, Manchester United and Chelsea.
Southampton vs. Arsenal
Saturday, 16 December, 15:00
Some might say I don’t learn from my mistakes, while others will praise my conviction, but once again I’m backing Arsenal on the handicap market.
I’m essentially picking this selection for one reason: Southampton still haven’t won a single game at home this season. Now, they may have drawn five, but they ship piles of goals against sides who offer a lot going forward.
I’ve already spoken about how Arsenal should have won by more last weekend, but there was one statistic I missed: The Gunners have outscored Spurs, Chelsea and surprisingly Liverpool. In fact they are only to second to Man City in goals scored.
With the joint second worst goals-for tally in the league this season, Southampton are in real trouble whilst Danny Ings and Shane Long remain out of action. Replacement Charlie Austin has just two goals this season and it means Arsenal don’t have much to worry about at the back.
Even if Saints do somehow score, I feel Arsenal will ultimately have to break down what I can only imagine will be an ultra defensive midfield of Oriol Romeu and Mario Lemina protecting four.
Recommended Accumulator Summary
Back Cardiff (+1.0) @ 5/7
Back Newcastle (0.0 Handicap) @ 11/10
Back Arsenal (-1) to Win @ 8/5
Total ACCA Odds: 8.2/1
You can back this accumulator by downloading BetBull here and then following my profile FootieWriter.
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