I’m barely back to breathing after Monday Night Football and that clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams. It was almost certainly one of the best regular season games of all time and a fantastic advert for what the NFL has become: a high-scoring and hugely entertaining league.
I’ve studied the stats ahead of week 12 and here are the four picks that I feel offer us the best potential for a winning ACCA.
Jaguars @ Bills
Sunday, 25 November, 18:00
Rumours of the demise of the Jags’ defense were greatly exaggerated and last week they did superbly well to hold the Steelers to a low score.
The Jaguars still have some glaring weaknesses and chief among those is QB Blake Bortles, who will surely no longer be starting at quarterback next season. Whilst the QB is holding his side back, the return of Leonard Fournette, the powerful and bruising running-back, has given him a huge boost. Fournette averages 125 total yards over the past two games and has three TDs.
If you’ve read my articles on BetBull before then you’ll know my views on the Bills offense. Now onto their fourth starting QB of the season, the uninspiring Matt Barkley, they offer very little with the ball in their possession. The Bills trail the other 31 teams with a league low 13.7 points per game and the lowest passing yards per game.
Even though the Bills defence has been improving through the season, they’re still getting hammered regularly by virtue of the time they spend on the field.
The Jaguars won’t reach the playoffs and need some major work in the off-season, but they’ll beat the Bills here. A solid bet to add to the ACCA.
Patriots @ Jets
Sunday, 25 November, 18:00
The Patriots are coming into this game off the back of a bye week. Whilst the Jets are also in the same boat, there isn’t a team in the league that can do more with that time on the pitch than the Pats.
It’s still unknown for certain whether we will see Rob Gronkowski return to the field this week, but it seems likely. The returning Gronk, a determined Tom Brady and an ever-improving Josh Gordon, will tear this Jets defence apart.
The Jets’ defence isn’t looking good right now and has been averaging over 25 points allowed each week. An eight-point handicap isn’t easy to cover but the Patriots, with a point to prove, are a team that could comfortably win by a margin of that size.
Cardinals @ Chargers
Sunday, 25 November, 21:05
The Cardinals somehow managed to lose to the Oakland Raiders last Sunday. That is a huge worry for a team that looks far superior on offense.
I’m not concerned about the Cardinals’ offense for this bet and all that matters is their defence, which hasn’t been great this season. They’ve averaged 24.8 points allowed this season. Worryingly, the last three games have seen them give up 45 points (to the Broncos), 15pts (49ers) and 23pts (Raiders). All three of those teams have had huge problems scoring points this year and to be giving up numbers like that is a real concern.
The Chargers score an average of 26.2 points per game. Keenan Allen looks to be finding form and the resurgence of the wide receiver is a boost to QB Phillip Rivers. Alongside that established passing game is a rushing game led by Melvin Gordon, a human cannon-ball of a running-back who smashes everybody in his way. The Chargers could put up a cricket score here.
Dolphins @ Colts
Sunday, 25 November, 21:25
The Colts make a welcome return to this column. With the return of star QB Andrew Luck and the hiring of Frank Reich, the Colts have been a great story in 2018. They’ve exceeded expectations and with a young core, including an incredible offensive line, they look set to have a great future in the next few years.
That offensive line is key here. They’ve not allowed Luck to be sacked in five games, which is outrageous. Rookie lineman Quenton Nelson has been a revelation and ‘Big Q’ is arguably the Rookie of the Year. That line allows Luck a lot of time to let the play develop and pick his pass. Luck’s long-term receiver TY Hilton scored two TDs last week and has come back from injury looking hungry and in great shape.
The Dolphins sit with a 5–5 record in the AFC East but, for my money, they’re the worst team currently sat on .500. They’ve been giving up an average of 25.6 points per game and that doesn’t bode well when they have to visit a Colts team who have scored 180 points in their last five matches. Yep, I’d be backing the over here and you should too.
Recommended NFL ACCA
Back the Jaguars @ 8/15
Back the Patriots (-8.0) @ 4/5
Back the Chargers Over 27.5 Points @ 4/5
Back the Colts Over 30.5 Points @ 10/11
ACCA Odds: 8.56/1
Get on this one!
Sam Farley 2018/19 Tipping Record
Acca Legs: 14/40 (35%)
Accas: 0/10 (0%)
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