Liverpool vs Man United — Match Preview
Premier League • Kick-off: Sunday 22 November 2026 at 16:30 GMT+0000
Liverpool
Man UnitedStatistical forecast, not a confirmed result. Percentages may differ slightly from 100% due to rounding.
Liverpool welcome Man United in a Premier League meeting where there is a modest advantage in the outcome probabilities. SportingWays projects a contest with opportunities at both ends, with 1–0 the most likely individual scoreline in its current model.
How the teams arrive at this fixture
These are verified completed results from the same competition, recorded before this fixture. They provide opponent and scoreline context rather than just a form letter.
Liverpool: recent results
In their last 5 completed competition matches, Liverpool recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 6.
- W Away v Crystal Palace — 3–1 8 Nov 2026
- L Home v Arsenal — 0–1 1 Nov 2026
- W Home v Brighton Hove — 2–0 25 Oct 2026
- W Away v Brentford — 2–1 17 Oct 2026
- L Home v Man City — 0–3 11 Oct 2026
Within this recent sample, they won 1 of 3 home matches. This is not a full-season venue record.
Man United: recent results
In their last 5 completed competition matches, Man United recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 11.
- D Home v Aston Villa — 4–4 8 Nov 2026
- L Away v Chelsea — 0–2 31 Oct 2026
- L Home v Bournemouth — 0–3 25 Oct 2026
- D Away v Leeds United — 1–1 18 Oct 2026
- D Home v Tottenham — 1–1 10 Oct 2026
Within this recent sample, they won 0 of 2 away matches. This is not a full-season venue record.
On the recent results alone, Liverpool have more wins in the available five-match sample. The strength of opponents and venue differ, so this is context rather than a direct measure of which side will win.
What could shape this match?
The forecast gives Liverpool a 40.3% chance of victory and Man United a 30.7% chance, with the draw at 29%. That is the starting point rather than the whole story: the latest results and the balance between each side’s scoring and conceding record help explain the numbers.
Looking at the most recent completed matches available in this competition, Liverpool have 3 wins from 5 while Man United have 0 from 5. Liverpool have recorded more wins in that recent sample. Form is useful context, but a run of results cannot capture the quality of opposition or changes in team selection.
The model’s most likely exact score is not necessarily the same as its most likely overall result. Across all possible scorelines, Liverpool victory has the highest combined probability (40.3%).
Recent form: Liverpool
Latest completed competition matches, newest first:
Across 5 available recent results, Liverpool recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats. This form summary describes the results available from the competition feed; it is not a complete assessment of performances across every competition.
Recent form: Man United
Latest completed competition matches, newest first:
Across 5 available recent results, Man United recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats. The model does not add a separate form adjustment on top of its goal-rate inputs, so recent results are presented as context.
Attacking outlook and expected goals
The model estimates approximately 1.19 goals for Liverpool and 1.00 goals for Man United. These are Poisson model scoring-rate parameters derived from observed goals, not event-based expected-goals (xG) statistics from shot locations.
The home side has the higher modelled scoring rate, suggesting more goal-scoring opportunities in the statistical distribution. That does not necessarily mean a home win is the most probable combined outcome once the full scoreline distribution is considered.
How the SportingWays prediction is calculated
The forecast uses 100 completed Premier League matches available in the competition data at the time the prediction was recorded. It measures home and away scoring and conceding averages, then smooths team estimates toward competition averages to reduce the impact of small samples.
Using those adjusted rates, a Poisson distribution estimates the probability of each scoreline. The probabilities are added together to estimate home-win, draw and away-win outcomes. The predicted score shown above is the single scoreline with the highest modelled probability, rather than a guaranteed result.
Important limitations: This model does not incorporate confirmed line-ups, injuries, suspensions, tactical changes, live betting odds or late-breaking team news. The five-match form sequence is informational and not an independent forecast input. A limited sample can produce volatile estimates, especially early in a competition.
SportingWays prediction verdict
For Liverpool against Man United, our recorded forecast is 1–0. The broad outcome with the highest modelled probability is Liverpool victory (40.3%). The forecast reflects the available goal data and should be read alongside the other possible outcomes rather than as a promise of what will happen.
Final result and prediction accuracy
The confirmed full-time result will be recorded after the match. The original predicted score and probabilities are preserved so visitors can compare the forecast with the actual outcome on the SportingWays prediction results dashboard.