York 3:00 City Of York Stakes Tips – Marvelman Can Spring A Surprise

Tip: Marvelman — best available price 25/1 at the time of writing

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The Sky Bet City Of York Stakes looks a fascinating Group 1, with several high-class performers facing testing conditions at York.

Marvelman could be the one to take advantage of the forecast softer ground and is worth considering at a much bigger price than the market leaders.

The Andrew Balding-trained colt produced the best performance of his career when winning a Group 2 over this 7f trip at Doncaster on soft ground last September.

He subsequently showed that the form was no fluke when returning to Britain and finishing second to Paborus in a Group 3 over 6f on the all-weather, conceding weight all round.

His latest run behind Lake Forest at Glorious Goodwood is easy to forgive. He raced far too freely after being trapped in a steadily run race, and that is not the ideal scenario for a horse whose best form has come when able to settle.

Today's race should provide a much stronger test of stamina and pace.

Most importantly, Marvelman handles soft ground, whereas several of his better-fancied rivals have question marks if the rain continues.

At around 25/1, he looks capable of outrunning his odds.

Main Danger: Lake Forest

Lake Forest has an excellent record at York and has to be respected.

He has won twice at the track, including the Gimcrack, and finished an unlucky second in this race 12 months ago.

The gelding operation has clearly helped him progress this season, with Listed and Group 2 victories over this distance before another creditable effort in the Sussex Stakes.

He was particularly unlucky when encountering traffic at Goodwood and remains a major player.

The biggest concern is the ground.

This week's rain is not necessarily what he wants, with his best form coming on good or quicker and his record on softer surfaces less convincing.

If the ground doesn't become too testing, he could be very hard to beat.

Zavateri Is A Major Player

Zavateri is one of the most interesting runners in the field.

He was one of the leading 2yos last season, with his head defeat of Gstaad in the Group 1 National Stakes over 7f at the Curragh standing out.

A setback ruled him out of the 2,000 Guineas, but he shaped encouragingly in a trial before finishing fifth in the Sussex Stakes.

That effort wasn't without promise, particularly as he was messed about at a crucial stage.

The return to 7f could be exactly what he needs, and with further improvement still possible he has strong claims.

The question is whether the ground becomes too soft, as his standout form came on yielding rather than genuinely testing ground.

Ten Bob Tony Has Strong 7f Form

Ten Bob Tony has a particularly strong profile for this race.

Before this season, his best form had come over 7f on good or slower ground, which makes today's conditions a major positive.

His surprise 50/1 success in the Queen Anne initially looked like a fluke, but he confirmed his ability when finishing a close fourth in the Sussex Stakes.

He was held up at the back of the field and finished strongly, suggesting this 7f trip could be ideal.

He is difficult to knock and looks one of the safest options in the field.

Notable Speech Has To Bounce Back

Notable Speech heads the market and is undoubtedly capable of winning a race of this nature.

He looked back to his brilliant best when producing his trademark turn of foot to win the Lockinge at Newbury.

However, he failed to fire when favourite for the Queen Anne at Ascot.

Fast ground brings out his best, although he did nearly win a French Group 1 on good to soft last season.

The 7f trip should not be a problem, but the combination of softer ground and his recent Ascot disappointment makes him less appealing at a short price.

Satono Reve Is An Intriguing Raider

Japanese challenger Satono Reve brings some high-class sprint form to the race.

He has won two Grade 1 races at home over 6f and has placed in three British Group 1s, most recently finishing well in the July Cup at Newmarket.

He has also won over 7f previously and his first career victory came over 1m.

There is plenty to like about his profile, but today's ground is the obvious concern.

His peak efforts have generally come on good or faster ground, while this could be the softest surface he has encountered.

Puerto Rico Could Improve For The Ground

Puerto Rico is another who could become interesting if conditions turn properly testing.

His last two runs in fast-ground Group 1s don't show him in his best light, but his record on slower ground is much more encouraging.

He has Group 1 form figures of 114 on very soft ground over 7f and 1m, including a respectable defeat on his seasonal return.

The first-time cheekpieces are another interesting angle.

At around 20/1, he could be the one to consider if looking beyond the obvious contenders.

Flora Of Bermuda Has A Strong York Record

Flora Of Bermuda has been a reliable performer in Group company and has long looked as though 7f would suit.

She proved that theory when winning the Oak Tree at Glorious Goodwood, and she could improve again if today's softer conditions bring further progress.

Her recent York record is particularly appealing, with form figures of 121 from her last three visits.

She may need another career-best performance to win this Group 1, but she should give her running.

Verdict

Marvelman is the selection at a big price.

His career-best effort came over this 7f trip on soft ground, and his latest run can be forgiven after he raced too freely in a steadily run contest.

With a stronger gallop expected at York and conditions likely to suit him better than several of his rivals, he has the potential to leave that Goodwood effort behind.

Lake Forest is the main danger given his outstanding York record, while Zavateri and Ten Bob Tony have strong claims on their best form.

At a bigger price, Puerto Rico is another one worth keeping onside if the ground continues to ease.

Today's Selections

🏆 Best Bet: Marvelman — best available price 25/1 at the time of writing

⚔️ Main Danger: Lake Forest

💰 Value Pick: Puerto Rico

Horse Racing Tips Today by AC

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