Tip: Castle Stuart — best available price 5/1 at the time of writing
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The Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Challenge looks a highly competitive 1m4f handicap, with several runners arriving with strong recent form.
The vote goes to Castle Stuart, who produced a very solid effort in the valuable John Smith's Cup at York last time and looks capable of building on that performance back at Ascot.
He was promoted from fourth to third in that race, finishing behind some useful opposition over an extended 1m2f on good to firm ground. He had been 4lb well in for that contest and is now 3lb higher, but the form still reads well in the context of today's race.
He also has some momentum behind him and the return to 1m4f should suit.
The main concern is that he races without the hood that was used for his last two starts, but there is enough in his recent form to suggest he can cope.
At around 5/1, he makes plenty of appeal in a race where there are several credible alternatives.
Main Danger: Night Breeze
Night Breeze sets a particularly high standard and is the obvious horse to fear.
He won this race 12 months ago, beating three of today's rivals, and did so off a mark 11lb lower. However, his form has arguably improved since then and he was not seen to best effect when behind Sportingsilvermine at Newmarket before running an excellent race at Glorious Goodwood over an inadequate 1m2f.
The return to 1m4f is a major positive, while his record at Ascot is excellent.
He is difficult to knock and could easily prove the one Castle Stuart has to beat.
Insanity Has Strong Shergar Cup Form
Insanity deserves plenty of respect given his record in this particular race.
He won the Shergar Cup Challenge two seasons ago and was only a length behind Night Breeze when second last year.
That latest renewal was run on good to firm ground and he arguably would have benefited from a stronger gallop. He is only 2lb higher than 12 months ago, so his handicap position remains workable.
His Royal Ascot defeat is easy enough to forgive, particularly given how encouraging his comeback run was.
If returning to his best, he has the class to play a major role.
Asgard's Captain Can Bounce Back
Asgard's Captain has been campaigned over a variety of trips recently, including 2m and 1m6f, but those runs may not tell the full story.
His strongest form has come around 1m4f, and earlier this season he produced solid efforts at the trip.
He also won at York over 1m4f on good to firm last year, beating Insanity, so today's conditions and distance are clearly suitable.
Ryan Moore takes the ride, which adds further interest, and he shouldn't be dismissed despite his recent form figures.
Stem Could Improve For The Extra Distance
Stem is another interesting runner.
He looked as though he needed further than 1m when staying on into fourth at Newmarket before stepping up to 1m2f at Sandown and getting the job done.
That victory wasn't achieved with much in hand, but he has only gone up 2lb and today's further step up in distance could unlock additional improvement.
The concern is whether he has enough experience at this level, but there is a possibility that he hasn't reached his ceiling yet.
Value Angle: Fantasy Believer
Fantasy Believer is a veteran with ten career wins and has plenty of experience in competitive handicaps.
He has been behind some of these rivals at York this summer, but his recent C&D run is worth noting. He tackled this distance just 15 days ago and wasn't disgraced.
That experience could prove useful, particularly if the race develops into a proper test.
At around 11/1, he is another who could get involved if producing one of his better efforts.
Verdict
Castle Stuart gets the vote after his highly respectable third in the John Smith's Cup.
He has the right profile for this race, should appreciate the return to 1m4f and arrives with his confidence boosted by a strong recent performance.
Night Breeze is the obvious danger given his course record and victory in this race last year, while Insanity has to be respected after finishing second in this contest 12 months ago.
Asgard's Captain and Stem are also capable of getting involved, but Castle Stuart looks capable of taking another step forward.
Today's Selections
🏆 Best Bet: Castle Stuart — best available price 5/1 at the time of writing
⚔️ Main Danger: Night Breeze
💰 Value Pick: Fantasy Believer
Where To Bet On This Race
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Bet £10 Get £50 in Free Bets 18+. New customers only. Register, deposit with a Debit Card, and place a first bet of £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports, to be settled within 7 days, to get £30 in Sports Free Bets and £20 in Acca Free Bets within 24 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. Full T&Cs apply.
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Bet £10 Get £15 in Free Bets 18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. The value of a free bet will not be included in any returns. Free bets cannot be exchanged for cash and are non-transferable. Free bets will expire 7 days after being credited if unused.
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Bet £10 Get £10 Free Bet 18+ New customers only. T&Cs apply. £10 in real money. Bets placed on sports at odds of 2.00 or more to qualify. Bets must be placed within 24 hours of registration. £10 free bets must be wagered on sports. Gambling can be addictive, play responsibly.