Marginal shift on the no deal betting as government announces parliament will close for five weeks as of tonight. Max Liu updates us on the Brexit odds.
“The UK is supposed to leave by 31 October – an outcome that's drifted to [3.8] in the past week – but MPs are demanding that Johnson be forced to request a delay from Brussels if a deal has not been agreed by 19 October.”
The odds on a no deal Brexit shortened to [4.1] after the government announced that its shutdown of parliament would begin tonight.
At the close of business on Monday night, the PM will formally suspend parliament for five weeks. This will happen after the bill forcing him to ask for a three-month extension to Brexit if the UK is heading for no deal becomes law.
Bettors convinced UK isn't leaving soon
The UK is supposed to leave the EU by 31 October – an outcome that's drifted to [3.8] in the past week – but that looks increasingly unlikely and MPs are demanding that Johnson be forced to request a delay from Brussels if a deal has not been agreed by 19 October.
The odds on Britain leaving the EU this year have drifted to [3.0], with a Brexit in the first half of 2020 trading at [3.05], and no Brexit before 2022 next in the betting at [4.3]. Article 50 to be revoked is [3.3].
Today, Johnson was in Dublin where he met Irish PM Leo Varadkar who warned him that a no deal Brexit would not amount to a clean break from the EU. He said no deal would cause “severe disruption for British and Irish people alike.”
Johnson set to lose election vote
Before parliament is closed on Monday, MPs will vote on whether to hold a general election in October. The PM sees an election as a way to break the Brexit impasse but opposition MPs are expected to vote against holding a snap election on 15 October.
They would prefer an election after the 31 October Brexit deadline has passed which is why a November [2.34] leads the election date market.
After vowing to take Britain out of the EU by 31 October, Johnson is discovering that it's easier said than done and there are no magical solutions to Brexit. As reported yesterday, though, if he wants succour, he should look at the betting on the outcome of the next general election: the Tories are [1.48] to win most seats.