No Deal more likely than ever before after

The Government has moved to prorogue Parliament in what looks like an attempt to force a No Deal Brexit through and the Betfair markets have reacted…

Following the Government's announcement of its plan to suspend parliament, giving MPs basically no time to stop a No-Deal Brexit, the odds of a no-deal have tumbled this morning on Betfair Exchange to [2.26] or a 44% chance of occurring in 2019.

Earlier this year a No-Deal Brexit was at odds of [10.0] – just a 10% chance of happening – but we've seen the odds shorten week-by-week, especially after Boris Johnson took over as Prime Minister and in the last few weeks as it's become clear that he is ready to take the UK out of the EU by October 31, come what may.

It's now odds-on at [1.8] (a 54% chance) that the UK will leave the EU by the end of October deadline, with those odds shortening similarly over the last few months, and they could go even lower over the next 24 hours as we watch with interest another unprecedented turn of events at Westminster.

Brexit graph 1280.jpg

This post first appeared here

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.