Picks From The Paddock Best Bet – Thursday 24th January - (2021)
We don’t have to wait long to see our bet of the day line up in the stalls at Southwell. The second contest on the card sees a group of lightly raced novices aim to show their worth and it’s going to take a hell of a lot for Hanati not to make it back to back victories. It’s interesting to note that Luke Morris doesn’t often ride for trainer Simon Crisford with only three occasions that the pairing has been seen in action. Two of those times were involving Hanati which produced a win and a 2nd. They have a 33% strike rate as a jockey and trainer partnership and this promising youngster seems to possess a tonne of tools that his rivals simply do not have at their disposal. An abundance of potential that was shown to full effect when putting returning rival Kadiz in her place. The likelihood of the form being reversed looks to be slim to none and slim’s just left town!
Top weight Point Zero is the proverbial bridesmaid so a win out of him looks less than likely.
A drop in trip for Bawtry Lady will likely suit but she certainly isn’t up to this level and the only possible alternative is the lightly tried Mayfair Rock who could throw down a challenge if blinkers spark some form of improvement.
Not likely to be the biggest price but Hanati’s connections are likely to see this as a stepping stone before bigger and better things await.
HANATI (WIN) – NAP
Jumira Bridge has a huge question to answer in regards to today’s unique surface but if the Robert Cowell trained five year old handles it well then expect him to be the one to beat. Contesting Class 2 races in his past five outings a drop down to Class 3 should certainly be of benefit. A recent 4th placed finish at Chelmsford showed a glimmer of hope and despite never tasting victory on an artificial surface has put in promising runs such as one at Kempton last year. (A 2nd behind A Momentofmadness reads as very good form) Jockey PJ McDonald is riding out of his skin at the moment and hopefully having him in the saddle should also provide a huge boost to the horses chances.
With five course and distance winners set to lineup it may leave some scratching their head as to why I haven’t opted for a horse who’s already proven at the course but this race looks a relatively weak affair.
Foolaad has accomplished a lot, especially at this track, but now looks to have been very firmly tackled by the handicapper and with such a weight to burden is going to find things very tough.
Unlike Foolaad the handicapper has been pretty kind to Moonraker who’s only been given a 2lb rise for his recent success and out of the two Mick Appleby runners looks the most likely to go close.
Of the remaining course winners Samovar and Midnight Malibu’s achievements have been in much lesser races and they’d have to show a tonne of improvement to be a factor.
The last to get a mention looks the biggest threat with top weight Danzan being the model of consistency with nine top three finishes from only thirteen career starts. The Andrew Balding yard have their horses in fine form and are operating at a 32% strike rate so if our selection fails to deliver expect Danzan to pick up the pieces.
JUMIRA BRIDGE (WIN)
12:35 – Highland Bobby (E/W)
13:05 – Rocku (E/W)
13:35 – Knocknamona (WIN)
14:10 – Lammturner (E/W)
14:45 – Madam Cloud (WIN)
15:20 – Foxtail Hill (WIN)
15:55 – Pogue (WIN)
12:45 – Sil Ver Klass (E/W)
13:20 – Rakhine State (E/W)
13:50 – Darasso (E/W)
14:25 – Seskinane (E/W)
15:00 – Monbeg Notorious (WIN)
15:35 – Cilaos Emery (WIN)
16:10 – Front View (WIN)
12:55 – Grand Inquisitor (WIN)
13:25 – Misdflight (WIN)
14:00 – Bubbles Of Gold (WIN)
14:35 – Gannicus (WIN)
15:10 – Gettysburg Address (WIN)
15:45 – Taking A Chance (WIN)
13:15 – Royal Cosmic (E/W)
13:45 – Hanati (WIN) NAP
14:20 – Jumira Bridge (WIN) *NB
14:55 – Second Page (WIN)
15:30 – Jahbath (WIN)
16:05 – Muqarred (E/W)
16:25 – Poppy May (E/W)
16:55 – Sundiata (E/W)
17:25 – Steel Train (E/W)
17:55 – How Far (WIN)
18:25 – Distant Applause (E/W)
18:55 – Sea Of Reality (WIN)
19:25 – Navajo Star (WIN)
19:55 – Rippling Waters (E/W)
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