Picks From The Paddock Best Bet – Monday 21st January
Gordon Elliot has sent six runners to Sedgefield in the last twelve months and has emerged with a 100% winning strike rate. The booking of Richard Johnson on Pat’s Oscar suggests that a big run is expected as the Champion Jockey has won thirty from sixty for the trainer in 2018 and he knows his way around the course, boasting a 37% winning strike rate over hurdles here in 2018. The step up in trip is a complete unknown but this won’t take much winning and the above stats look too good to dismiss.
The biggest danger looks to be Quick Pick who has two wins from three here at Sedgefield and is now 4lbs below last winning mark. Both these wins came over shorter trips but he has raced with credit over further than today and was also a point-to-point winner earlier in his career so he looks the most likely to challenge our selection, while Keith Dalgleish is another trainer who tends to do well at the course so his runner Niceandeasy could put up a challenge if his stamina holds out.
Pat’s Oscar (WIN) – NAP
Phillip Rowley is well-known in the point-to-point world but also boasts an excellent record under rules, with twenty-one winners and twenty-three placed efforts from just ninety-two runners and level stakes profit of +£45.79. He won this race last season and looks to have a great chance of success again with the unbeaten Hazel Hill, who was last seen beating a subsequent winner by sixteen lengths over a three-mile trip in March 2018. He has a bit to find with some rivals based on official ratings but is again partnered with stable jockey Alex Edwards who was on board for both prior victories and operated at a 35% winning strike rate for the stable in 2018 so it would be no surprise if he were able to put up a bold show today.
The obvious danger looks to be likely favourite and clear top-rated Shantou Flyer who failed to land a blow in last season’s Grand National but was an excellent second in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Festival and as a prior Grade 2 and Grade 3 winner sets the standard.
Brandon Hill is a previous course and distance winner and has a good record in general over similar trips so completes the shortlist.
Hazel Hill (E/W)
13:15 – Jokers And Rogues (E/W)
13:50 – Savannah Moon (E/W)
14:20 – Briac (WIN)
14:55 – Pat’s Oscar (WIN)
15:30 – Romeo Brown (WIN)
16:00 – Bertie Blake (WIN)
13:00 – Shaji (E/W)
13:30 – Yellow Dockets (WIN)
14:05 – Ange Des Malberaux (WIN)
14:40 – Captain Cargo (E/W)
15:10 – Darlyn (WIN)
15:45 – Hazel Hill (E/W)
16:15 – Heatherdown (WIN)
16:50 – Lorna Cole (WIN)
17:25 – Kinver Edge (WIN)
17:55 – Zephyros (E/W)
18:25 – Thaqaffa (WIN)
18:55 – Star Ascending (WIN)
19:25 – Monumental Man (E/W)
19:55 – Man Of Verve (E/W)
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