BetBright STATZONE: Saturday ITV Racing (6th Oct 2018)

Welcome to the BetBright STATZONE, where we give you the stats and you make the decisions!

Some nice winners last week for the Saturday TV trends & tips so hoping for more of the same this weekend as the ITV cameras head to Newmarket, Ascot and Redcar to take in seven LIVE races.

At Redcar we've got the Two-Year-Old Trophy as their feature contest, while at Newmarket the Group One Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes takes centre stage – a race the French have won 5 times in the last 16 years. Then at Ascot we've four more races that include the Cumberland Lodge and John Guest Bengough Stakes, plus the ultra-competitive Challenge Cup Handicap.

Did you know that 14 of the last 16 Cumberland Lodge favourites have been placed?

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on STATZONE with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the big fields – So, let’s get started!

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/ATR)

1.50 – Duke Of Edinburgh’s Award Rous Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV4

14/14 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
14/14 – Won over 5f before
13/14 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Rated 101 or higher
11/14 – Winning distance – ½ length or shorter
11/14 – Aged 5 or younger
10/14 – Had won between 3-7 times before
9/14 – Unplaced last time out
8/14 – Yet to win at Listed or better class
7/14 – Raced at Newbury last time out
6/14 – Irish bred
3/14 – Trained by Bryan Smart
2/14 – Won last time out
1/14 – Winning favourites
Just Glamorous (33/1) won the race in 2017
10 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 10 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1

STATZONE VERDICT: Just Glamorous took this race 12 months ago at 33/1 so can’t be ruled out despite a string of poor runs this season. The Bryan Smart camp have also done well in the race in recent years – winning it in 2009, 2010 and 2011 – so their MYTHMAKER (e/w) – looks interesting and can go well. This 6 year-old was a fine second in the Beverley Bullet last time out to the classy Take Cover so comes here in fine fettle. He stays further than this 5f trip which will help on the stiff Ascot track and should be finishing off the race better than most. A Momentofmadness won well last time out and is another to note, while he was also a fair fifth in the race last year. Judicial is a classy sort but needs to bounce back from some below-par runs of late. The drop in grade should help on that score though. He was beaten by Mr Lupton last time in a Group Three at Newbury so has a bit of ground to make up with that Richard Fahey runner too. The quicker ground should see them finish a lot closer this time while it’s worth noting from two runs at Ascot Mr Lupton has only managed 8th and 9th. The old boy Muthmir should be in the mix but is a horse that is hard to win with these days – just 1 success from last 10 – so might have to settle for a place again. So, the other one I like here is SPRING LOADED. This 6 year-old was a nice winner over course and distance back in July and hasn’t been disgraced since in decent handicaps – not been beaten far over 6f. The drop back to 5f will help and he also gets weight from most of the principles mentioned. Adam Kirby, who rode him to his last win, is back in the saddle too.

 

2.25 – Stella Artois Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV4

16/16 – Finished fourth or better last time out
14/16 – Had won over 1m4f before
14/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
14/16 – Placed favourites
13/16 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
12/16 – Won at Listed or better class before
11/16 – Had raced at the course before (6 won)
10/16 – Winning distance 1 ¾ lengths or more
10/16 – Had 5 or more runs that season
10/16 – Won last time out
10/16 – Had won 4 or more times before
8/16 – Favourites to win
6/16 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
5/16 – Trained by Marcus Tregoning
2/16 – Ridden by Martin Dwyer
1/16 – Filly or mare winners
9 of the last 10 winners came from draws 8 or lower
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/3
Danehill Kodiac (8/1) won the race in 2007
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

STATZONE VERDICT: Laraaib sets a fair standard here and if running to the form that saw him run Poet’s Word to just over 2 lengths back in May at Sandown then he’d be hard to beat. However, he’s lost his way a bit since then and it’s interesting that connections are now reaching for the blinkers. He’s a course winner so that helps but is also yet to win beyond 1m2f so that’s another concern for me. Grey Britain and Blakeney Point were both good winners last time out, but this will be harder on these terms. FIRST ELEVEN is the one that gets the nod though. He’s the only proven course and distance winner in the field and looks to have more in the locker. This 3 year-old gets weight from the older horses and the way he powered clear over this trip last time caught the eye. More is needed but he’s certainly a big player from the powerful John Gosden camp. The other 3 year-old in the race to get weight is Communique and this Mark Johnston runner is actually rated 5lbs higher than First Eleven. He’s in form too after wins at Newbury and Newmarket, while he’s a typically tough Johnston sort that has proved hard to pass in recent races and it might be more of the same here. However, his only run at Ascot saw him finish down the field in the King George V Stakes here in June. He’s a horse that’s had a staggering 12 races this season and with those last two wins looking big efforts I just wonder if they will take their toll. With that in mind, I’m happy to stick with FIRST ELEVEN, who is proven at the track and has been raced less this season so might just be the fresher of the pair.

 

3.00 – John Guest Bengough Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV4

10 previous runnings
10/10 – Won over 6f previously
10/10 – Officially rated 100 or higher
9/10 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
9/10 – Won 4 or more times previously
8/10 – Had run within the last 30 days
7/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
6/10 – Raced 6 or more times that season
5/10 – Won their previous race
3/10 – Returned a double-figure price
3/10 – Favourites to win
2/10 – Raced at the Curragh last time out
Horse from stall 7 has been placed in 5 of the last 7 runnings (3 wins)
Horses from stall 5 and 7 have won 5 of the last 7 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2
Blue Point (Evs) won the race in 2017

STATZONE VERDICT: A decent race in prospect here with some talented sprinters on show. Dream Of Dreams is a consistent sort that can be expected to be in the mis again. He’s finished in the top three in his last three starts and should be in the mix. He stays further than this 6f trip so that’s a help but the fact he’s not won this season does put me off him. RAVEN’S LADY (e/w) is in rude health after two recent wins. She’s only just got the job done both times so it’s hard to know if she’s got more to come. She’s had time to get over her recent run (41 days) and is certainly one for the shortlist – jockey Gerald Mosse is 2-from-2 on her and remains in the saddle. The consistent Projection and Laugh A Minute are others that a case can be made for, while Gifted Master is a proven course and distance winner that off a mark of 115 is the highest-rated in the field. However, LIMATO beat him just over 4 lengths last time at HQ and I’ll take it to be more of the same here. Henry Candy’s 6 year-old has found a new lease of life of late – winning his last two over this trip – and until that form relents looks the clear one to beat.

 

3.35 – Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV4

15/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
14/16 – Won between 2 and 4 previous races
13/16 – Won over 7f previously
11/16 – Had raced within the last 30 days
11/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/16 – Raced at Ascot previously
10/16 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
9/16 – Raced 7 or more times that season
8/16 – Returned a double-figure price
7/16 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
5/16 – Raced at Ayr last time out
4/16 – Favourites to win
2/16 – Traind by Roger Charlton
2/16 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/16 – Won their previous race
0/16 – Filly or mare winners
7 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
5 of the last 10 horses from stall 10 were placed in the top 4
4 of the last 10 horses from stall 11 were placed in the top 3
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 12/1
Accidental Agent (16/1) won the race in 2017

Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

STATZONE VERDICT: 18 runners here but hopefully the trends will be a help. 14 of the last 16 winners had won between 2-4 times before, while 13 of the last 16 winners had winning form over this 7f trip. Add in that 11 of the last 16 winners raced in the last 30 days, plus were aged 3 or 4 years-old and had run at Ascot in the past then there a lot to go on. 7 of the last 10 winners have also come from stalls 8-13 (inc) so horses Cape Byron, Raydiance, Gilgamesh, Vale Of Kent, Good Effort and Cardsharp will be hoping to uphold that stat. Top-weight Flaming Spear was only 14th in the race last year so despite being well-touted in the betting needs to improve on that. He’s also rated 3lbs higher this time and it won’t be easy with 9st 10lbs to carry. Connections do have a 5lb claimer on to help with his weight though and the Dean Ivory yard know what’s required to win this race – landing the prize in 2016. He’s a player but does fall down on a fair few of the main trends and looks little value in a race of this nature. Cape Byron ticks a lot of boxes and was a decent second over course and distance last time out. He’s a course winner and since being gelded is yet to be out of the top three from three starts. His weight (9st 3lbs) looks the only real trend negative. RIPP ORF ticks a lot of boxes too. His form at Ascot catches the eye (1-3-1), while he’s a very consistent sort that’s only finished out of the top four once from 17 starts. Expect to see him late on as he likes to come with a strong finish, but it will be a shock if he’s not involved. Raising Sands, Il Primo Sole and Escobar are others to note, but the other one that I like here is GILGAMESH. This 4 year-old gets in with just 8st 11lbs and with draw 10 giving him options he has most of the main stats in his corner. A recent second over course and distance means he heads here in form and also had my other fancy – Ripp Orf – back in fourth that day. The weights suggest both are evenly-matched again but if there is one small niggle it’s his previous track form – 7-7-11 – if he can overcome that then he looks to have a lot going for him.

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

2.05 – British EBF Breeders´ Fillies´ Series Sprint Handicap Cl2 6f ITV4

Just 2 previous running
Trainer Malcolm Saunders won the race in 2017
Trainer Andrew Balding won the race in 2016
Trainer John Gosden has a 21% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Hughie Morrison has a 33% record with his 3 year-olds at the track

STATZONE VERDICT: Trainer John Gosden has a decent 21% record with his 3 year-olds here so his PERFECTION gets the nod in a race that’s only been run twice before. Frankie Dettori rides and after an easy win at Yarmouth last time out heads into the race in tip-top form. He’s won over the course too (7f) so that’s a plus and so far is 1-from-1 over this 6f trip. The Ralph Beckett yard are in good order at the moment so their Poyle Charlotte is interesting with a very light weight. Lady Freyja, Mayleaf Shine and Rock On Baileys are others to note, but the main danger to the selection looks to be Fille De Reve. This 3 year-old has won her last two in decent fashion and is also unbeaten (2-from-2) over this trip. Jamie Spencer rode her to won of those wins and returns to the saddle, but with Perfection having tasted the track before that experience just edges it for me.


3.15 –
Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV4

12/14 – Had won over at least 1m before
12/14 – Previous Group winners
12/14 – Won between 3-5 times before
11/14 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
10/14 – Rated between 113 and 119
9/14 – Previous Group One winners
7/14 – Aged 3 years-old
5/14 – Winning favourites (1 co)
5/14 – French-trained winners
5/14 – Raced at Deauville last time out
4/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/14 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The last 11 winners came from stalls 9 or lower
Horses from stall 1 have won 4 of the last 12 runnings
Roly Poly (4/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

STATZONE VERDICT: A cracking renewal of this Group One. We’ve got the 1,000 Guineas winner – Billesdon Brook – returning to the scene of her Classic win in May but she’s failed to build on that success and has a bit to prove for me. Veracious looks to be improving and with Frankie riding looks one for the short list too, while the powerful Aidan O’Brien camp send over three – Clemmie, Happily and I Can Fly. All three are rated within a pound of each other so jockey bookings will give us more clues here., but of the trio I Can Fly was a good winner last time out at Leopardstown and it could be that the penny is starting to drop with her. Wind Chimes is the highest-rated in the field (120) and comes over from the Andre Fabre camp in France. She was a close second in the Group One Prix du Moulin last time out so commands respect but is yet to record a win at the highest level. With that in mind, I’d prefer to stick with the tough and consistent LAURENS to win her fifth Group One here. She was runner-up in the 1,000 Guineas so the track is fine, and her only blot came when trying 1mf in the Yorkshire Oaks earlier this season. She since bounced back to win the Matron Stakes over a mile in Ireland and that form makes her the one to beat. She’s only finished out of the first two once from 9 starts and stays further than this mile trip which will be a huge help in the closing stages. Veracious looks best of the rest.

 

Redcar Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

2.45 – Racing UK Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4

13/16 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
13/16 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
11/16 – Had won 1 or 2 previous races
10/16 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
10/16 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/16 – Foaled in March or later
8/16 – Had won over 6f before
8/16 – Unplaced favourites
5/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Filly winners
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/16 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/16 – Trained by Stan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

STATZONE VERDICT: Trainer Tim Easterby has a fair record in this race – winning it twice in the last 16 years and he looks to have another solid chance this year with a horse called VINTAGE BRUT. This juvenile is rated 101 and the joint-highest in the field and heads here off the back of a good second at Ayr last time out. Any rain would be a help, but he’s won on good ground in the past. The cheekpieces are an interesting addition here too, while draw 20 can hopefully see him bag the rail. Of the rest, Swissterious is the other 101-rated horse in the field so commands respect. He ran well for much of the way over 7f in the Group Three Acomb Stakes but backed that up when down to this 6f trip last time at Doncaster. Draw 18 looks a plus and he’s sure to be involved. Red Balloons, Rathbone and Strict Tempo are others to note, while the Richard Hannon camp often do well in these races so their BEAT LE BON (e/w), who has only had two career runs might run better now dropped to 6f. He’s been running ok over further just got tired in the closing stages over a mile last time when taking a hold. The drop back to 6f will help on that score and should have more to come with only two career runs.

 

That should be all you need, if you can’t make the right decisions with all that info, there’s no helping you!

The post BetBright STATZONE: Saturday ITV Racing (6th Oct 2018) appeared first on BetBright Blog.

Original source: https://blog.betbright.com/horse-racing/betbright-statzone-saturday-itv-racing-6th-oct-2018/

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