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Welcome to the BetBright STATZONE, where we give you the stats and you make the decisions!
As we move into the final few weekends of the turf flat season we've another ‘crackerjack' of a card this Saturday to look forward to as it's Champions Day at Ascot.
Yes, the Berkshire track is the sole meeting being covered by the ITV cameras this weekend, but with four Group 1's a Group 2 and a competitive handicap its a card that always has a Royal Ascot feel as the best-of-the best from all ranges of trips lock horns.
We get going with the Long Distance Cup over 2m – a race that will revolve around the John Gosden-trained Stradivarius, who has been the staying cup king this season.
The Group One's get going with the Champions Sprint – a contest the James Fanshawe-trained The Tin Man landed in 2016, with Librisa Breeze winning the race last year. The Fillies & Mares Stakes and QEII Stakes are next up before we end the Group One races with the main event – the Champion Stakes. Another ‘unmissable' contest that sees the likes of Cracksman and Crystal Ocean doing battle in what looks a top renewal. The card ends with the ultra-competitive Balmoral Handicap.
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on STATZONE with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get cracking!
Ascot Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)
1.25 – Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) Cl1 2m ITV
14/16 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
13/16 – Won at Listed or better class previously
13/16 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or less
12/16 – Aged 5 or older
11/16 – Returned 9/2 or shorter
11/16 – Favourites placed
11/16 – Raced at least 5 times that season
11/16 – Won over at least 2 miles on the flat previously
11/16 – Won at least 5 times previously
8/16 – Raced at Longchamp (3), Ascot (2) or Doncaster (3) last time out
7/16 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
7/16 – Won their latest race
5/16 – Irish-trained winners
3/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/16 – Trained by Dermot Weld
Order Of St George (4/5 fav) won the race in 2016
Since 2011: 5 of the last 7 winners came from stalls 2-4 (inc)
Since 2011: Horses from stall 7 have been placed in 4 of the last 6
The average winning odds in the last 10 runnings is 6/1
STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow……………………
2.00 – Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV
15/16 – Won over 6f previously
15/16 – Returned 12/1 or shorter
15/16 – Won at least 3 times previously
14/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/16 – Raced at least 4 times that season
13/16 – Won at Listed or better class previously
12/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/16 – Raced at Ascot previously (3 won)
12/16 – Finished in the top 4 in their latest race
11/16 – Won a Group race previously
10/16 – Favourites placed
10/16 – Raced at Haydock (5), Goodwood (2) or Newbury (3) last time out
4/16 – Won their latest race
4/16 – Favourites that won
Librisa Breeze (10/1) won the race in 2017
The Tin Man (13/2) won the race in 2016
Since 2011: 4 of the last 7 winners have come from stalls 12 (2) or 14 (2)
Since 2011: 4 of the last 7 winners came from double-figure stalls
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 12 placed 5 of the last 7 runnings
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 14 placed 4 of the last 7 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 11 runnings is 13/2
Note: The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket
STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow……………………
2.40 – Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 1m4f ITV
10/10 – Raced 3 or more times that season
9/10 – Won at Listed or better class previously
8/10 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
8/10 – Won over 1m4f previously
8/10 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
8/10 – Won at least 3 times previously
8/10 – Raced within the last 9 weeks
7/10 – Returned between 4/1 and 6/1
7/10 – Rated 110 or higher
6/10 – Favourites placed
6/10 – Aged 3 years-old
5/10 – Won their last race
3/10 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/10 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/10 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1
Hydrangea (4/1) won the race 12 months ago
Note: The 2009 & 2010 renewals were run at Newmarket
STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow……………………
3.15 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV
16/16 – Raced at least 3 times that season
15/16 – Raced at Goodwood, Longchamp or Leopardstown last time out
15/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter
15/16 – Aged 3 or 5 years-old
14/16 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
14/16 – Finished in the top three in their last race
13/16 – Favourites placed
12/16 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/16 – Raced at Ascot previously (6 won)
8/16 – Won their latest race
8/16 – Won at least 7 times previously
7/16 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
7/16 – Favourites that won
4/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/16 – Trained by Freddie Head
2/16 – Trained by John Gosden
3/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
Persuasive (8/1) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1
Since 2011: Horses from stall 2 and 7 have won 4 of the last 7 runnings
Note: The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket
STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow……………………
3.50 – Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f ITV
16/16 – Won at least 4 times previously
15/16 – Won between 4 and 8 times previously
15/16 – Aged 5 or younger
15/16 – Finished in the top 3 in their latest race
14/16 – Won over 1m2f previously
14/16 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
12/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/16 – Raced 5 or more times that season
10/16 – Won their last race
7/16 – Raced at either Longchamp (4) or Goodwood (3) last time out
6/16 – Favourites unplaced
6/16 – Returned a double-figure price
4/16 – Won by a French-based trainer
4/16 – Favourites
3/16 – Ridden by Tom Queally
Cracksman (13/8 fav) won the race 12 months ago
Since 2011: Horses from stall 5 have won 2 of the last 5 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 11/2
STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow……………………
4.30 – Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco) Cl2 1m ITV
Just 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Winners drawn 10 or lower
3/4 – previous winners were aged 5 years-old
3/4 – Carried between 9-1 and 9-3 in weight
3/4 – Winners ran at Newmarket last time out
1/4 – Winning favourite
Trainers David O’Meara, Roger Charlton, Saeed Bin Suroor and Marcus Tregoning have won the race in the past
Horses from stalls 12 or 13 have been placed in the last 3 runnings
STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow……………………
That should be all you need, if you can’t make the right decisions with all that info, there’s no helping you!
The post BetBright STATZONE: Saturday ITV Racing (20th Oct 2018) appeared first on BetBright Blog.
Original source: https://blog.betbright.com/horse-racing/betbright-statzone-saturday-itv-racing-20th-oct-2018/
