Timeform pick out their best back, lay and smart stat bets on Monday…
“…he has already demonstrated enough ability to suggest that an opening mark of 69 will not prove beyond him here…”
Timeform on Starczewski
Alnadir – 20:15 Windsor
Alnadir showed improved form to get off the mark on his final two-year-old start at Nottingham, hitting the front over two furlongs out and ultimately well on top at the finish, despite still looking rather rough around the edges (edged left under pressure in the closing stages). That form has worked out well in Alnadir's absence so far this season – the runner-up Eagles By Day is now rated 114p after finishing third in last week's King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot – and this son of Noble Mission has the look of one who should have even more to offer as he gains in experience this term, with an opening mark of 86 appealing as fair for the Simon Crisford yard that continues in top form (four winners from last 12 runners).
Quiet Place – 18:30 Wolverhampton
Quiet Place looks the set to go off favourite here, and she certainly sets the standard on weight-adjusted ratings, having filled the runner-up spot in each of her three starts to date. However, it's fair to say that she has proved expensive to follow, odds-on when getting the beaten on the two most recent occasions, and this is arguably a stronger race than those she has been contesting of late; she looks worth taking on at the current prices, with Dazzling Des and Sermon just two of several sorts running for us. The former stepped up from his debut effort when fourth at York last month and should take plenty of beating if taking another step forward here, while the form of Sermon's debut third at Haydock has worked out well (winner was third in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot), and he is another who could improve past the prohibitively-priced Quiet Place.
Starczewski – 14:00 Chepstow
15% – David Simcock's strike rate with handicap debutants
Starczewski progressed again when second on his most recent outing at Salisbury, keeping on well to be beaten just a length and a half by another improver, with a subsequent winner another four lengths back in third. It would be no surprise if he proved capable of better still given his overall profile, and he has already demonstrated enough ability to suggest that an opening mark of 69 will not prove beyond him here – indeed, he is 3 lb clear of the field on weight-adjusted ratings, with the promising Dylan Hogan also claiming 5 lb. It's also reasonable to expect improvement from Unplugged, and he is feared most ahead of all-weather winner Lieutenant Conde and Renardeau.
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