Friday 9 August 2019 UK Horse Racing Tips

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Timeform pick out their best back, lay and smart stat bets on Friday…

“…a repeat performance will make him hard to beat here…”

Timeform on Outbox

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Outbox – 19:10 Newmarket

If Outbox can cope with two outings in relatively quick succession he holds an obvious chance off the same mark as when narrowly denied by King's Advice in a very competitive Glorious Goodwood handicap last weekend. Indeed, he looked the likeliest winner a furlong from home, just finding a game rival too strong in the closing stages, and a repeat performance will make him hard to beat here. Corelli remains open to improvement back down in trip and can provide the main threat ahead of Almost Midnight.

Lay
Lexington Quest – 18:00 Newmarket

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Lexington Quest will likely be a warm order now contesting in this lower grade, but he has only achieved a fair standard of form so far, and doesn't look one to be taking a short price about albeit at this lowly level. One to take him on with is Max's Thunder, who will take a bit of beating if coming back to the form of his fourth-placed finish in a minor event at Newbury last month. Admittedly, he ran no sort of race on all-weather debut at Wolverhampton last time, but that run was too bad to be true, and he is well worth another chance.

Smart Stat:
Welcome Surprise – 19:20 Haydock

Smart Stat: 23% – Saeed bin Suroor's strike rate with horses running in races between 7f and up to 10f

Welcome Surprise has very much looked a work in progress in three starts to date, well found in the market but clueless on debut at Salisbury, and showing his best form on his second start at Wolverhampton in June. He seemingly paid the price for racing too close to the pace at Newcastle last time, left behind in the final furlong, but is worth another chance now handicapping from what doesn't look an excessive mark, especially given his trainers record with such types.



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