BetBright STATZONE: Saturday ITV Racing (29th Sept 2018)

Welcome to the BetBright STATZONE, where we give you the stats and you make the decisions!

Plenty to look forward to this Saturday on the horse racing front with a cracking card at Newmarket that includes the competitive Cambridgeshire Handicap, plus leading Group races – the Middle Park, Royal Lodge and Cheveley Park Stakes. Did you know that ALL of the last 16 Cambridgeshire Handicap winners were aged 6 or younger?

If that wasn't enough the ITV cameras are also heading to Haydock Park to take in two competitive handicaps.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on STATZONE with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the big fields – So, let’s get started!

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

1.50 – Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 1m ITV4

16/16 – Had won one or two races before
15/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
15/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
15/16 – Had won over 7f or further before
15/16 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
13/16 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
12/16 – Either US or Irish bred
12/16 – Foaled in Feb or March
10/16 – Had only won over 7f before
9/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Trained by John Gosden
3/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
Frankie Dettori has ridden the winner 5 times
9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

Note: From 2010 back the race was run at Ascot, except in 2005 (Newmarket)

STATZONE VERDICT: The Mark Johnston, Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden yards all have good records in this race – winning it nine times between them in the last 16 years – and they are all represented again here. Johnston runs Victory Command, Gosden has Beatboxer, while O’Brien is mob-handed with three runners – Sydney Opera House, Mohawk and Cape Of Good Hope. Of the O’Brien runners their Cape Of Good Hope is the highest-rated on 106 and sets a fair standard after running second in the Group Two Superlative Stakes in July. Recent winners – Kadar and Kuwait Currency – look as if they could have more to come and can’t be ruled out for the Karl Burke and Richard Hannon yards, while Duke Of Hazzard is yet to finish out of the top four from six runs and is another the place players will latch onto. However, the call here is for Frankie Dettori to continue is good record in the race – he teams-up with John Gosden here to ride BEATBOXER. Yes, on ratings this 2 year-old has a bit to find but heads here 2-from-2 after wins at Sandown and Haydock so should have more to offer. Connections clearly feel he’s up to this level and the manner of his win last time out (won by 3 ¾ lengths) indicates just that. Of the rest, Arthur Kitt ran the useful Too Darn Hot to 4 lengths last time out at Sandown but with his conqueror that day also trained by Gosden then they should know where they stand with Beatboxer taking him on this time.

 

2.25 – Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies) Cl1 6f ITV4

16/16 – Finished in the top two last time out
16/16 – Had won over 6f before
15/16 – Foaled in Feb or March
15/16 – Had not run at Newmarket (Rowley) before
14/16 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Had 3 or more previous runs
11/16 – Went onto run in the 1,000 Guineas the following season (2 won it)
11/16 – Won last time out
11/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
9/16 – Had won exactly 2 previous races
8/16 – Horses from stall 6 that finished in the top 3
7/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/16 – Winners drawn in stall 6
2/16 – Went onto win the 1,000 Guineas the following season
2/16 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (last 2 runnings)
2/16 – Trained by Brian Meehan
9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 1-5 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

STATZONE VERDICT: Some big yards on show here as we see some potential stars of the future. Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the last two runnings and he’s got a great chance of adding to that record with Fairyland, Gossamer Wings and So Perfect all entered. All three are closely-matched but of the trio Fairyland might come out on top. She’s won three of her four starts – including beating The Mackem Bullet by a nose in the Lowther Stakes last time out at York. It’s interesting that Frankie Dettori rides Signora Cabello instead of the John Gosden runner – Angel’s Hideaway. This filly was a close second in the Prix Morny last time out in France, but prior to that had won four on the spin, including the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. She’s sure to be popular but I’d be worried that all her wins have been over shorter. The horse that beat her that day is, therefore, also a big player – PRETTY POLLYANNA – and off a rating of 117 is the highest in the field. She seems to just stay this 6f trip the better that day and it will be a shock if she’s not proving hard to beat here if running up to that level. The other horse that catches the eye though is QUEEN OF BERMUDA (e/w) after her easy Group Three win at Ayr last week. She travelled well through that race and powered away to win by an easy 2 lengths. Yes, this is a step up into a Group One and that also came in heavy ground, but she’s got winning form on a quicker surface too and for connections to be running her again so soon suggests she’s clearly come out of that race very well.

 

3.00 – Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts) Cl1 6f ITV

15/15 – Won over 6f previously
14/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
13/15 – Won their last race
13/15 – Had run 3 or more times previously
13/15 – Won at least twice previously
12/15 – Never raced at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
11/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
11/15 – Foaled in either Feb or March
9/15 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race before
9/15 – Favourites placed
5/15 – Ran at Deauville last time out
4/15 – Favourites that won
4/15 – Won by an Irish-based stable
3/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
1/15 – Winners that came from stall 1
Aidan O’Brien won the race in – 2000, 2001, 2004, 2011 & 2017

STATZONE VERDICT: Another race Aidan O’Brien has a cracking record in – with five wins since 2000. He runs Sergei Prokofiev and TEN SOVEREIGNS in the race but it’s the last-named of that pair that looks their main plyer. This colt is 2-from-2 after wins at the Curragh and looks like being the latest Ballydoyle talking horse to come of the conveyor belt. Of the rest, the 112-rated Emaratty Ana has to be respected after landing the Gimcrack last time out at York, while with Legends Of War only ½ a length back in second he’s another to note. Rumble Inthejungle was sent off favourite for the Flying Childers last time but flopped. He’s clearly better than that and if that run can be overlooked would certainly be a player on his easy Molecomb win at Goodwood in August. Jash has done little wrong too after two wins from two, but this is a step up in grade. O’Brien’s other runner – Sergei Prokofiev – is certainly no back number either – he was a close third in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot and is better than his last run when last of five at the Curragh in the Phoenix Stakes.

 

3.40 – Bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m1f ITV

16/16 – Aged 6 or younger
15/16 – Won 3 or more times in their career
13/16 – Carried 9-4 or less
12/16 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
12/16 – Won from a double-figure stall
12/16 – Unplaced favourites
12/16 – Had won over 1m2f before
11/16 – Finished 5th or better last time out
11/16 – Had 5 or more runs that season
11/16 – Rated between 90-100
11/16 – Returned a double (or treble) figure price in the betting
9/16 – Carried 8-12 or less
5/16 – Ran at Newbury last time out
3/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by John Gosden
2/16 – Won their last race
10 of the last 12 winners had run in the last 9 weeks
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 22/1

STATZONE VERDICT: A monster 35 runners to go through here so the trends can help us a lot. With ALL of the last 16 winners aged 6 or younger then this knocks Examiner, Mythical Madness and Mistiroc out, while with 12 of the last 16 winners aged between 4 and 6 then I’m going to ignore the 3 year-olds in the race too – Wissahickon, Danceteria, Kenya, Ventura Knight & Stylehunter. The last horse older than 6 to win was Rambo’s Hall (7) in 1992. In terms of weight it’s 9st 4lbs or lower that seems to be the cut-off point so the top nine on the card will have this trend to overcome too. Winning at least three times in their career, having five or more runs that season and being placed fifth or better last time out are other key trends to note. Taking all those into account the ones that standout for me are KYNREN (e/w), VIA VIA (e/w), ZWAYYAN (e/w) and VIA SERENDIPITY (e/w). Jockey William Buick has been booked to ride the consistent Kynren and this 4 year-old deserves to win one of these big-field handicaps. He was a neck second in the Clipper Handicap at York last time and prior to that an excellent third in the John Smith’s Cup. He’s a versatile sort regarding the trip and with key trends like weight (9-3) and draw (22) on his side another bold showing looks on the cards. The James Tate-trained Via Via was freshened-up with a 3 month break at the end of May but returned last month with a solid second on the July course here. He kept on well to take second over a mile last time so the step up in trip should be within range, while the first-time blinkers clearly did the trick that day – they are on again here. Zwayyan hails from the Andrew Balding yard, who are having a cracking season but are also looking for their first win in this race. This 5 year-old was a fair second at Ascot last time out over a mile off this mark and looks worth a crack up in trip here today. Balding also runs recent easy York winner Pivoine, but he’s up a big-looking 8lbs for that win and it won’t be easy with 9-9 to carry. The final of the main picks – Via Serendipity – is closely-matched with Zwayyan after beating that one into third in a decent handicap at Ascot in August and is only 3lbs higher here. He’s also a course winner here at the track (last November), while Gerald Mosse catches the eye in the saddle. Draw 33 is fine and gets in here with 9-1 in weight. Of the rest, the John Gosden camp have a good record in the race so their runners Stylehunter, Tricorn and Wissahickon will be popular, especially the last-named with Frankie Dettori looking to follow-up his 1994 win in the race (Halling). We’ve a rare runner for Aidan O’Brien in the race – Kenya – so this is another to note, while Godolphin’s Very Talented was a smooth winner on his return at Chelmsford after 700+ days off and providing the dreaded ‘bounce-factor’ doesn’t raise it’s head looks interesting too. Alfarris and Sharja Bridge are two more that have been popular in the build-up to the race in the ante-post markets, but both are others that seem to have their fair amount of weight. They will be looking to become only the second horses since 1996 to win with 9-7 or more on their backs.

 


HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

2.05 – Smarkets Betting Exchange Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m ITV4

10/11 – Had won 1 or 2 times before
10/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
9/11 – Didn’t win last time out
8/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/11 – Drawn in stalls 8 or lower
6/11 – Unplaced favourites
6/11 – Irish bred winners
4/11 – Had raced at Haydock before
3/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by Tom Dascombe
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

STATZONE VERDICT: A tricky handicap to unravel here with all 10 runners looking to have some sort of a chance. The Ralph Beckett-trained Mitchum Swagger will be popular after last seen running third in the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster in March. He acts with give and is a horse that clearly goes well fresh and is also a proven course and distance winner. The consistent Aquarium can be expected to be involved but is a horse that seems to place more often than win and is now 8 runs without a victory. Tim Easterby has a decent hand too with two runners – Just Hiss and Al Erayg – and with both having light weights then these are feared. However, it might be worth chancing M C MULDOON (e/w) and ALEMARATALYOUM (e/w) here at bigger prices. The first-named comes from the Peter Chapple-Hyam yard that have a decent 25%+ strike-rate with their 3 year-olds at the track and with only three career runs is one of the lesser exposed runners in the field. The horse was a good winner on debut over a mile but has since been highly-tried in better races over further – the drop in trip and class should help. The other pick comes from the Iain Jardine team and they do well at the track too (20%+). This 4 year-old is a proven course and distance winner that heads here in fine form after a good second at Ayr last weekend. A 3lb rise for that looks fair and is a horse that handles a bit of cut in the ground. A bit to prove in this grade but with just 8-9 in weight and form at the track then looks dangerous.

 

3.15 – Smarkets Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV4

11/11 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/11 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
11/11 – Had won over 5f before
10/11 – Aged 6 or younger
9/11 – Came from stalls 7-11 (inc)
8/11 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/11 – Carried 8-11 or more in weight
8/11 – Had won between 2-4 times before
7/11 – Rated between 92-96
7/11 – Had raced at Haydock before
7/11 – Favourites placed
7/11 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
4/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/11 – Trained by Jamie Osborne
2/11 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/11 – Ridden by Adam Kirby
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

STATZONE VERDICT: With 9 of the last 11 winners coming between stalls 7 and 11 then AEOLUS, JABBAROCKIE, DAKOTA GOLD, SOIE D’LEAU and DIAMOND DOUGAL look very interesting. With 8 of the last 11 winners aged 3 or 4 years-old too then of those five DAKOTA GOLD and DIAMOND DOUGAL could be the answer. Dakota Gold comes from the in-form Michael Dods yard and was far from disgraced when running sixth in the Ayr Silver Cup last week. He’s a pound lower here but also down to 5 furlongs which based on the fact he led up well until the final furlong over 6 that day suggests the drop in trip is a big plus. Dods also runs Holmeswood, who is closely-matched with his stablemate (both rated 90) but it remains to be seen if draw 17 will be a help or hinderance to his chance. He’s nine races without success but as a result is starting to look well-handicapped too. Diamond Dougal gets in with just 8-6 in weight but is also a proven course and distance winner that is another that will like the drop back in trip after finding 6f stretching him last time out. Any rain is fine as he’s won in heavy ground but has also tasted victory on good ground. Of the rest, the in-form Tarboush is another to consider after three straight wins, while the likes of Poyle Vinnie, Confessional, Tommy G and Final Venture are regulars in these sort of big-field handicaps.

 

 

 

That should be all you need, if you can’t make the right decisions with all that info, there’s no helping you!

The post BetBright STATZONE: Saturday ITV Racing (29th Sept 2018) appeared first on BetBright Blog.

Original source: https://blog.betbright.com/horse-racing/betbright-statzone-saturday-itv-racing-29th-sept-2018/

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About the Author: AC

A player on the Horses for over 20 years. I currently bring my expertise in Sports betting to maintain and promote my related websites. I'm always looking out for the next angle to talk about on my sites and improve on my and ultimately your betting success. Good luck to all.

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