BetBright STATZONE: Saturday ITV Racing (27th Oct 2018)

Welcome to the BetBright STATZONE, where we give you the stats and you make the decisions!

Loads more going on this Saturday as the ITV cameras are at Doncaster, Newbury and Cheltenham.

At Doncaster the Group One , newly-named Vertem Futurity Trophy (the old Racing Post Trophy) takes centre stage as trainer Aidan O'Brien goes in search of win number eight in the race of the season, while jockey Andrea Atzeni has won the race four times in the last five years.

A decent flat card at Newbury too, while the jumping action returns to Cheltenham for the second day of their Showcase Meeting – in all we've got nine LIVE races spread across the three tracks so something for everyone!

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on STATZONE with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get cracking!

 

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

1.45 –Doncaster Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

11/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/11 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
10/11 – Drawn in stall 9 or lower
10/11 – Foaled in February or later
10/11 – Had won over 6f before
10/11 – Won between 1-2 times before
9/11 – Won last time out
8/11 – Carried 9-1 in weight
8/11 – Favourites placed in the top 3
7/11 – Raced at York, Nottingham or Kempton last time out
7/11 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
7/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
6/11 – March-born foals
5/11 – Irish bred
4/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/11 – Trained by Brian Meehan
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10.5/1
Trainer Marco Botti has won 2 of the last 3 runnings

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow…………………….

 

3.25 – sunracing.co.uk Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 5f ITV

14/14 – Ran 5 or more times that season
13/14 – Had won over 5f before
13/14 – Aged 5 or younger
11/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/14 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
9/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/14 – Carried 8-10 or less
9/14 – Unplaced favourites
9/14 – Had run at Doncaster before (4 won)
5/14 – Ran at Pontefract (3) or Ayr (2) last time out
5/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Winners from stall 1
2/14 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy
2/14 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of last 5)
1/14 – Winning mare/filly
8 of the last 11 winners came from a double-figure stall
The average winning SP in the 10 years is 11.5/1

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow…………………….

 

4.05 – Vertem Futurity Trophy (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) ITV 1m

15/16 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
14/16 – Had won either 1 or 2 races before
14/16 – Placed favourites
13/16 – Foaled in February or later
13/16 – Finished in the top two last time out
13/16 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
11/16 – Winning favourites
11/16 – Had raced at least twice previously
11/16 – Won their last race
10/16 – Foaled in either Feb or March
9/16 – Ran at either the Curragh (3) or Newmarket (6) last time out
6/16 – Won by an Irish-based yard
5/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/16 – Won by a Montjeu-bred colt
4/16 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
3/16 – Went onto win the Epsom Derby
2/16 – Went onto win the 2,000 Guineas
1/16 – Went onto win the St Leger
Five winners have gone onto win the following season’s Epsom Derby
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 8 times – 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2011, 2012 & 2017
The average SP in the last 16 runnings is 7/1

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow…………………….

 

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

 

2.20 – Teddington Royal British Legion Stakes (Registered As The St Simon) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

16/16 – Aged 5 or younger
15/16 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
14/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Had won at least twice before
13/16 – Had at least 4 runs that season
13/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Had run at Newbury before (4 won)
10/16 – Rated 107 or higher
10/16 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
10/16 – Placed horses from stall 6
7/16 – Winners from stalls 6 or 8
6/16 – Won by a filly or mare
6/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Trained by Andrew Balding
0/16 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow…………………….

 

2.50 – Molson Coors Stakes (Registered As The Horris Hill Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

14/15 – Foaled in Feb or later
12/15 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Won just 1 or 2 races before
11/15 – Never raced at Newbury
11/15 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
11/15 – Had at least 3 previous career runs
9/15 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
8/15 – Won over 7f before
8/15 – Favourites unplaced
7/15 – Foaled in February
7/15 – Won their last race
7/15 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
4/15 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
4/15 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
1/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow…………………….

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends ITV/RUK)

2.00 – ‘Matchbook’ Exchange Handicap Chase Cl2 3m1f ITV

12/12 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting market
10/11 – Won over at least 3m previously
9/11 – First run of the season
8/11 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
8/11 – Favourites unplaced
8/11 – Rated 136 or higher
8/11 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
7/11 – Irish bred winners
7/11 – Had won at Cheltenham previously
6/11 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
5/11 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
5/11 – Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson
5/11 – Unplaced in their last race
1/11 – Winning Favourites
Cogry (13/2) won the race 12 months ago
Singlefarmpayment was 2nd in the race last year
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow…………………….

 

2.35 – Masterson Holdings Hurdle Cl2 2m110y ITV

7/9 – Having their first run of the new jumps season
6/9 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Carried 10-12 in weight
5/9 – Placed in their last race
4/9 – Irish bred winners
4/9 – Favourites placed
3/9 – Winning favourites
3/9 – Won 3 times over hurdles previously
2/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow………………….

 

3.10 – Randox Health Handicap Chase Cl2 1m7f199y ITV

Only 3 previous runnings
Foxtail Hillwon the race in 2017 for trainer Neil Mulholland
Boondooma won the race in 2016 for trainer Dr Richard Newland
All three winners aged between 6-8 years-old (2 aged 8)
All three winners returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
1 winning favourite
2 of the 3 winners carried 11-1 or more

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow…………………….

 

3.45 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 2m7f208y ITV

7/9 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/9 – Priced 17/2 or bigger in the betting
7/9 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
7/9 – Had run at Cheltenham before (3 winners)
6/9 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
6/9 – Last ran 6 month+ ago
5/9 – Unplaced favourites
4/9 – Won last time out
3/9 – Irish Bred
2/9 – Mare winners
2/9 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/9 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/9 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow…………………….

 

 

That should be all you need, if you can’t make the right decisions with all that info, there’s no helping you!

 

The post BetBright STATZONE: Saturday ITV Racing (27th Oct 2018) appeared first on BetBright Blog.

Original source: https://blog.betbright.com/horse-racing/betbright-statzone-saturday-itv-racing-27thoct-2018/

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