BetBright STATZONE: Saturday ITV Racing (26th Jan 2019)

Welcome to the BetBright STATZONE, where we give you the stats and you make the decisions!

Another huge day of horse racing this Saturday as it's ‘Trials Day' up at Cheltenham. This is their last meeting before the Festival in March, so plenty more clues to be had, including top races like the Cleeve Hurdle and Cotswold Chase.

The ITV cameras are also up at Doncaster to take in the best of their action, including the ultra-competitive SkyBet Chase – a race the Alan King yard have won twice in the last three runnings and a contest 12 of the last 13 winners were aged 9 or younger.

As always, we got it all covered with all the key trends – use these stats to help find the best past winning profiles to help whittle down the runners and hopefully pin-point a few winners.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on STATZONE with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get cracking!

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

12.40 – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (A Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f RUK

13/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
12/15 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
12/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Had previously won at least once over hurdles in the UK
9/15 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the market
9/15 – Winning distance – 2 ¼ lengths or less
9/15 – Won last time out
8/15 – French bred (including last 6 winners)
8/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/15 – Went onto be placed in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (3 winners, Defi Du Seuil  2017, Peace & Co 2015, Katchit 2007)
4/15 – Trained by Alan King
4/15 – Priced 25/1, 50/1 or 100/1
5/15 – Had raced at Cheltenham previously
3/15 – Won by a German bred horse
3/15 – Won by an Irish bred horse
The last two winners have been owned by JP McManus

2018 Winner: APPLE’S SHAKIRA (N Henderson) 1/7 fav

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow………………………….

 

13.15 – Timeform Novices´ Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f RUK

15/15 – Aged 8 or younger
14/15 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (2 winners, La Landiere Cathcart 2003, Close Brothers Novices’ Chase Mister Whitaker 2018)
14/15 – Won between 0-2 races over fences in the UK previously
13/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/15 – Finished either 1st or 2nd last time out
12/15 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) in the UK previously
11/15 – Priced 13/2 or shorter
11/15 – Rated 128 or higher
9/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/15 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
9/15 – Irish bred
7/15 – Carried 11-2 or more
6/15 – Won last time out
6/15 – Ran at Kempton last time out
5/15 – French bred
3/15 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/15 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/15 – Won with 11-12 in weight
2/15 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/15 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
1/15 – Winning favourites

2018 Winner: MISTER WHITAKER (M Channon) 6/1

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow………………………….

 

1.50 – Crest Nicholson Handicap Chase (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f ITV

14/15 – Had won over at least 2m5f (fences) previously
13/15 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
13/15 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
13/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
13/15 – Rated 130 or higher
12/15 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/15 – Aged 8 or older
11/15 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before (7 won)
11/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/15 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
9/15 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
9/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/15 – Carried 10-7 or less
5/15 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Ran at Newbury last time out
3/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/15 – Won by the Pipe stable

2018 Winner: FRODON (P Nicholls) 13/2

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow………………………….

 

2.25 – BetBright Trial Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV4

15/15 – Officially rated 151 or higher
14/15 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
14/15 – Ran at Cheltenham over fences before (8 had won)
14/15 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
13/15 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
11/15 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, all placed 8th or better)
11/15 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
10/15 – Ran at either Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (3) or Kempton (4) last time
10/15 – Priced 7/1 or less
9/15 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
9/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Unplaced last time out
7/15 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/15 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
6/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Won by a French-bred horse
2/15 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (4 wins in total)
2/15 – Won by the Oliver Sherwood yard
1/15 – Went onto win the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015)
0/15 – Favourites
10 of the last 11 winners were aged 9 or 10 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 15/2
Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup

2018 Winner: DEFINITLY RED (B Ellison) 7/1

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow………………………….

 

3.00 – Ballymore Classic Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 2m4f110y ITV4

13/13 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
12/13 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
11/13 – Favourites placed
11/13 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles previously
11/13 – Winners that later raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 winners)
10/13 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously
10/13 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
10/13 – Won their latest race
10/13 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old
9/13 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
8/13 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
8/13 – Priced 7/2 or less
5/13 – Favourites that won
4/13 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/13 – Raced at Newbury last time out
3/13 – Won by the Alan King stable
3/13 – Winners that went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
3/13 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/13 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable

2018 Winner: SANTINI (N Henderson) 4/1

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow………………………….

 

3.35 – galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV

13/14 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
13/14 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
13/14 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
12/14 – Raced at Cheltenham (hurdles) previously
11/14 – Went to run in that season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle (4 won)
11/14 – Officially rated 154 or higher
10/14 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 4 in that season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle
9/14 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
9/14 – Finished either 1st or 2nd in their last race
8/14 – Favourites placed
8/14 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
7/14 – Won their latest race
6/14 – Favourites that won
6/14 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/14 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
2/14 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown
Unowhatimeanharry won the race in 2017

2018 Winner: AGRAPART (N Williams) 9/1

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow………………………….

 

4.10 – Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2) (4yo+) RUK Soft 2m1f

14/14 – Rated 121 or higher
13/14 – Had raced within the last 9 weeks
12/14 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
12/14 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
11/14 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
10/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/14 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner La Fontana)
8/14 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
8/14 – Unplaced favourites
7/14 – Irish bred
7/14 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or less
5/14 – French bred
4/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/14 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/14 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore

2018 Winner: REMILUC (C Gordon) 20/1

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow………………………….

 

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV4)

2.05 – Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The River Don Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m110y ITV4

9 previous runnings
9/9 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or less
9/9 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
8/9 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
8/9 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/9 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/9 – Won last time out
6/9 – Placed favourites
5/9 – Irish bred
3/9 – Winning favourite
3/9 – Had raced at Doncaster before
The average SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1
No real age trend with 5,6,7 & 8 year-olds all winning

2018 Winner: ENNISCOFFEY OSCAR (E Lavelle) 9/2

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow………………………….

 

2.40 – OLBG.com Yorkshire Rose Mares´ Hurdle (Registered as The Doncaster Mares´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

9 previous runnings
9/9 – Aged 8 or younger
8/9 – Had won over this trip before
8/9 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
7/9 – Won last time out
6/9 – Went onto run in the Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/9 – Won between 1-3 times before (hurdles)
5/9 – Irish bred
4/9 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 6/1

2018 Winner: MARIA’S BENEFIT (S Edmunds) 10/11 fav

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow………………………….

 

3.15 – Sky Bet Chase (A Handicap) (formerly The Great Yorkshire Chase) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ 0-155) CH4 3m ITV4

12/13 – Had won between 0-3 times over fences before
12/13 – Carried 11-2 or less
12/13 – Aged 9 or younger
10/13 – Officially rated 130 or higher
10/13 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
9/13 – Carried 10-12 or less
9/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/13 – Unplaced favourites
8/13 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
7/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/13 – Finished unplaced last time out
7/13 – Irish bred
4/13 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Alan King
The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 9/1
Note: The 2007 running was staged at Southwell
Other Stats:
4 of the last 12 winners of this race went onto contest the William Hill Trophy (now JLT Chase) at the Cheltenham Festival that season (1 winner)
4 of the last 12 winners went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners, all unplaced)

2018 Winner: WAKANDA (S Smith) 8/1

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow………………………….

 

 

The post BetBright STATZONE: Saturday ITV Racing (26th Jan 2019) appeared first on BetBright Blog.

Original source: https://blog.betbright.com/horse-racing/betbright-statzone-saturday-itv-racing-26th-jan-2019/

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