BetBright STATZONE: Saturday ITV Racing (19th Jan 2019)

Welcome to the BetBright STATZONE, where we give you the stats and you make the decisions!

We've seven more LIVE races this Saturday as the ITV cameras head to Ascot and Haydock. The Grade One Clarence House Chase is the main event at Ascot as the Willie Mullins-trained In De Sceaux bids to win the race for a fourth year in a row. Did you know 14 of the last 16 Clarence House Chase winners came from the top three in the market?

Then over at Haydock we've three more races to take in that include the Peter Marsh Chase – a race that 14 of the last 15 winners have won carrying 11-3 or less in weight. We've also got the Champion Hurdle Trial, as race named in honour of The New One, who won this prize many times in the past.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on STATZONE with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get cracking!

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

1.50 – OLBG.com Mares´ Hurdle (Registered As The Warfield Mares´ Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

9 previous runnings
9/9 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
8/9 – Officially Rated 133 or higher
8/9 – From the top 4 in the betting
8/9 – Later ran in that season’s OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
8/9 – Won over at least 2m5f (hurdles) previously
7/9 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
6/9 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
6/9 – Ran at either Haydock (3) or Newbury (2) in their last race
6/9 – Favourites placed
5/9 – Won their last race
5/9 – Winning Favourites
4/9 – French bred
3/9 – Raced at Ascot previously
3/9 – Aged 6 years-old
2/9 – Trained by Harry Fry
2/9 – Later finished second in the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival)
1/9 – Won the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival) – Vroum Vroum Mag (2016)
Trainer Harry Fry won 2 of the last 4 runnings

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow…………………………

 

2.25 – Matchbook Holloway´s Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m3f58y ITV4

9/11 – Priced 5/1 or bigger in the betting
9/11 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
9/11 – Aged 7 or younger
8/11 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
8/11 – Officially rated 139 or higher
8/11 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
7/11 – Ran within in the last 4 weeks
6/11 – French bred
6/11 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/11 – Went onto race in that season’s Coral Cup (best finish 3rd)
5/11 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles in the UK previously
5/11 – Had raced at Ascot previously
5/11 – Won their last race
5/11 – Aged 6 years-old
3/11 – Trained by David Pipe
3/11 – Raced at Cheltenham in their last race
2/11 – Later raced in that season’s World Hurdle (best finish 3rd)
2/11 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/11 – Favourites (1 co)
Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Haydock

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow…………………………

 

3.00 – bet365.com Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y ITV4

12/12 – Won between 1-3 times over fences in the UK previously
11/12 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
10/12 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
10/12 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
10/12 – Either French (3) or Irish (7) bred
9/12 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
9/12 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
9/12 – Officially Rated 130 or higher
8/12 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
8/12 – Aged 8 or younger
6/12 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
6/12 – From the top 3 in the betting
5/12 – Winning distance  – 6 lengths or further
5/12 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
4/12 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2) or Chepstow (2) last time out
2/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 4 runnings)
2/12 – Trained by Richard Rowe
2/12 – Won their last race
2/12 – Winning Favourites

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Uttoxeter

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow…………………………

 

3.35 – Matchbook Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m1f ITV

16/16 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
16/16 – Won at least 3 times (fences) previously
15/16 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
15/16 – Won a race over fences at 2m1f or further
14/16 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
14/16 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
14/16 – Favourites placed
12/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
11/16 – Won their last race
10/16 – Went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (4 winners)
10/16 – Raced at Sandown (6) or Wetherby (3) last time out
9/16 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/16 – Favourites that won
8/16 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
7/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
4/16 – Went onto win the Champion Chase that season (2009 – Master Minded, Sprinter Sacre 2013, 2014 Sire de Grugy, 2015 Dodging Bullets)
4/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won the race 5 times in all)
4/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
4/16 – Had won the Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown) last time out
3/16 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (won the race 4 times in all)
2/16 – Won by the Pipe stable
Since 1989 there have only been 3 winners aged in double-figures
Since 1989 (28 runnings) there have been 12 winners aged 8 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 3/1
Note:
2006 – Renewal at Sandown
2005 & 2017 – Renewals at Cheltenham

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow…………………………

 

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

2.05 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

12/12 – Aged 7 or younger
12/12 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
11/12 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/12 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Won their last race
6/12 – Aged 5 years-old
6/12 – Had raced at Haydock previously
6/12 – Winning Favourites
4/12 –  Ran at Haydock last time out
3/12 – French bred
2/12 – Went onto win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
2/12 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/12 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/12 – Trained by Donald McCain Jnr
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 11/4
Note: 2004 Renewal was staged at Wetherby

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow…………………………

 

2.40 – The New One Unibet (Registered as the Champion Hurdle Trial) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

13/13 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
13/13 – Favourites placed in the top 3
11/13 – Finished in the top three in their last race
11/13 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
10/13 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle
11/13 –  From the top 3 in the betting
11/13 – Priced 9/4 or shorter
10/13 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
10/13 – Officially Rated 152 or higher
10/13 – Either French (3) or Irish (7) bred
9/13 – Ran at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (5) last time out
7/13 – Aged 7 or younger
8/13 – Winning Favourites
4/13 – Placed in the top 4 in that season’s Champion Hurdle (no winners)
3/13 – Won their last race
1/13 – Went onto win that season’s World Hurdle
The average SP in the last 8 runnings is 2/1

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow…………………………

 

3.15 – Peter Marsh Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV

15/15 – Won on ground described as soft or worse previously
14/15 – Aged 8 or older
14/15 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
13/15 – Had run within the last 36 days
11/15 – Won at least 3 times over fences previously
10/15 – Officially Rated 139 or higher
10/15 – Won at Haydock previously
10/15 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
9/15 – Favourites unplaced
9/15 – Won between 3-5 times over fences before
8/15 – From outside the top 3 in the betting
9/15 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
8/15 – Won before (fences) over at least 3m
8/15 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
8/15 – Irish bred
7/15 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
7/15 – Won over fences at Haydock before
6/15 – Ran at Wetherby last time out
5/15 – Raced in the Roland Meyrick (Wetherby) last time out
5/15 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
3/15 – Trained by Sue Smith
2/15 – Trained by the McCain stable
2/15 – Won their last race
2/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 10/1

STATZONE VERDICT: To Follow…………………………

 

 

That should be all you need, if you can’t make the right decisions with all that info, there’s no helping you!

 

 

The post BetBright STATZONE: Saturday ITV Racing (19th Jan 2019) appeared first on BetBright Blog.

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