Burnley to cause trouble at Molineux
Back Burnley/Draw in the Double Chance Market @ 10/11 v Wolves
Anyone who followed my bets last year know that backing Wolves served me well, but with a Monday-Thursday-Sunday split of fixtures due to playing qualifiers in the Europa League, I think they could struggle physically against a Burnley side who have looked a tough team to beat so far.
Firstly, there was the Clarets' opening 3-0 win to Southampton, where they scored with only four attempts on target and 46% possession, and even in their 2-1 defeat away against Arsenal where they had 32% possession, they beat the Gooners on xG. The only difference on the day, was that Arsenal had the quality to produce a moment of magic to put them ahead.
Much has been predicted around Wolves season so far, and while I think people are underrating them this year because they also want to challenge in Europe, facing Manchester United followed by travelling to Torino and then coming back with only a couple of days rest could allow the Burnley to take advantage, and 10/11 for a Clarets win or draw is a fair price.
Jasmine Baba 2019-20 P/L: +£1.00
No stopping City
Back Manchester City to win and Under 3.5 Goals @ 13/10
I got off the mark last week thanks to Leicester's second half rally landing my double chance bet, so let's get on a roll and build some momentum this week.
Bournemouth weren't exactly impressive last week against Aston Villa, as although they went 2-0 up early, they conceded good chances after that, and were perhaps fortunate to escape with all three points (xG: AST 2.09 – 1.74 AST).
Another poor defensive display here would see them take a beating at the hands of Manchester City, so a much more conservative approach is expected here from Eddie Howe, though he will be hoping to go better than in this fixture last season, as that was a game in which they didn't even muster a shot.
Manchester City were exceptionally unlucky not to beat Tottenham last weekend, and not just because of VAR, as according to expected goals, a 3-0 scoreline would have been a fairer reflection based on the chances created by both sides (xG: MCI 3.39 – 0.12 TOT).
If that game has changed anyone's mind about City winning the league, then I wonder what you watched, as Pep's side were sensational, and if they perform to that level against this leaky Bournemouth team, we could see a cricket score.
However, I think this could follow a similar pattern to last season's fixture, which resulted in a 1-0 City win, as Bournemouth will be attempting to keep the score down and avoid the fate suffered by West Ham on opening day, so my selection is to back City to win and Under 3.5 Goals @ 13/10.
Jake Osgathorpe 2019-20 P/L: +£1.00
Impressive Foxes to win at Bramall Lane
Back Leicester @ [2.32] to beat Sheff Utd
Having faced two of last season's top seven teams in the first two rounds of fixtures I'm not sure if Brendan Rodgers will be happy or not with Leicester's return of two points.
Performance wise I think Rodgers has to be happy. The Foxes enjoyed 70% possession at home to Wolves and registered no fewer than 16 shots, but could manage only a 0-0 draw, while last week at Stamford Bridge they were more than a match for Chelsea and produced an excellent second half performance. Leicester are still unbeaten then, but they could easily have had four or even six points on the board by now.
Rodgers' men face newly-promoted Sheffield United on Saturday who are also unbeaten after two games. The big difference is that the Blades have faced two clubs – Bournemouth and Crystal Palace – that you'd expect to be in the bottom half of the table all season.
United's tails are up still following last season's promotion and a good start to the new Premier League campaign, so they could be a tough nut to crack, but I just feel that Leicester have far more quality in their side – not least in the shape of the excellent James Maddison – and all things being equal they should come away from Bramall Lane with all three points.
If this fixture were to be played in a couple of months time when the form has settled down I would expect to see Leicester trading at odds-on, so the [2.32] for them to win this weekend makes lots of appeal.
Mike Norman 2019-20 P/L: -£20.00
Firing Finn is my fancy
Back Teemu Pukki to score v Chelsea @ [2.86]Saturday, 12:30
Only the fixtures at Anfield and Dean Court (Vitality Stadium if you must) are clearly expected to deliver more goals than Norwich's home game against Chelsea with layers convinced that we'll get decent entertainment on Saturday lunchtime.
That seems a safe assumption given the Canaries have scored four and conceded five, while the visitors have been unusually porous in the backline, losing 4-0 at Old Trafford and lucky to only give up one to Leicester in a poor second-half last weekend.
Unlike more than a few promoted sides, Norwich look like they'll go toe-to-toe with most sides and in Teemu Pukki they appear to have a forward with the goalscoring ability to enable them to do that successfully.
I quite fancy Norwich to cause Chelsea a few issues in this game – there's no little appeal in the Canaries at odds-against in the double chance market – but if they are to do that then surely Pukki, scorer of four goals so far this season, will be the man doing the damage.
I rarely look at goalscorer odds and see any value but the [2.86] on the Finn scoring here just looks big and is enough for me to strike a bet and hopefully land my first battle winner of the campaign!
Joe Dyer's 2019-20 P/L: -£20.00
Reds to win an entertaining encounter at Anfield
Back Liverpool to beat Arsenal and Both Teams to Score at [2.72]Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event
As Mark O'Haire says on our Football…Only Bettor podcast this week,'when you think of Liverpool v Arsenal, you think of goals'.
And it's not just our imagination. Opta tell us that no Premier League fixture has seen more goals than matches between these two (155 goals in 54 games), while there have been 35 in the past seven meetings.
So goals look certain, but what about the result? Well, Liverpool are unbeaten in their last eight matches against Arsenal in all competitions while the Gunners are without a win in their last six visits to Anfield, conceding two or more goals in each match (22 in total).
A home win with Over 2.5 Goals looks a safe bet then, but that's an odds-on shout, so I'll take a chance on Arsenal getting on the scoresheet. Liverpool have conceded in both of their matches so far and the Gunners have plenty of firepower in their ranks.
Dan Thomas 2019-20 P/L: -£20.00
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