Ed Hawkins gets the spreadsheet out for the fastest runscoring venue in the world in Hamilton tomorrow…
“There is 5/6 available for over 26.5. The average per game is 26.6 and the mark has been busted four times. Fair to say then, that the odds are about bang on”
The runscoring feats at Hamilton in the eight T20 internationals played there suggest that the New Zealand and India bowlers will cross the white line with a sense of trepidation. It could be an expensive evening for their economy rates.
Last year, England whacked 194 off their allotted allocation and for a large chunk of the reply it looked like being nowhere near enough. Colin Munro's brutal assault – 57 from 21 – including an extraordinary seven sixes was some retort to Eoin Morgan's six sixes in a 46-ball 80.
The previous year, New Zealand chased 169 with all ten wickets to spare. Martin Guptill hit 87 from 58 balls and Kane Williamson 72 from 48. The easy-hitting has not been unusual. Our pitch report in the match preview suggests that 190 is something of a must batting first to win the game.
No wonder that Seddon Park has the highest batting average for T20 grounds in New Zealand and the second-highest runs per over (8.82). Indeed, at venues around the world which have staged eight matches of more this is the fastest scoring and by a fair chunk with SuperSport park in Centurion next best at 8.69.
The innings runs market, then, will see some interest. And it is reasonable to reckon that 160 should be busted with ease. With the run rate giving us an edge, we would suggest getting long of 170 if odds are available at around the [1.80] mark.
With the batters to the fore, it would make sense to stick with a frontrunner on the man of the match market. Rohit Sharma is a man who could benefit after he rediscovered his touch with a fluent half-century in game two at Auckland.
He is the 7/1 jolly. Munro is 10s and it is worth mentioning his opening partner Tim Seifert, who blasted his way to the gong in the first match with a destructive show. Seifert is 9/1.
The easiest way to make profits from the run glut is to search for value on the sixes and fours market. Sportsbook go even money there is more than 15.5. The average per match is 16.2, although four times in eight has the mark actually been busted. Given that they go 8/11 under it is rather mean spirited that the odds are not fair for the other side.
Kuldeep a bet
On that basis, it is impossible to claim that it's a wager on pure value terms, which is the whole point of this column. It is frustrating but rules are rules.
There is 5/6 available for over 26.5. The average per game is 26.6 and the mark has been busted four times. Fair to say then, that the odds are about bang on.
Despite the odds being right (although unfair) on sixes and fours we wouldn't suggest going low. That would be crackers given the formguide.
We still have one bet to follow, though. Kuldeep Yadav – just like he was for games one and two – remains value at 11/4 for top India wicket-taker. He hasn't played in this series yet and it could be that he's nipped home without India letting us know.
If he does play, we rate Kuldeep at more like 11/8 and if he doesn't, you get your money back. There surely seems a slot for him now after Yuz Chahal was expensive and the series is on the line.