England v Pakistan Fifth ODI Stats Betting and Tips

Fakhar to the fore

The injury to Imam-ul-Haq has rather wrecked best-laid plans for a top runscorer wager on Headingley's flat, white batting paradise. We're also concerned about his participation in the World Cup which could jeopardise a future's bet on top Pakistan tournament runscorer.

But when one door closes another opens and if the prices are right, Fakhar Zaman is a bet to blaze away in the absence of his opening partner. Fakhar, with a century to his name and an entertaining fifty at Trent Bridge on Friday, has been underrated from ball one in this series. Just like Imam.

Babar Azam, who is often not short enough for top-bat honours in Twenty20, is consistently the wrong favourite in ODI. We understand perfectly why he gets top billing. He looks a million bucks at the crease and he has a big reputation that he shows he is deserving of in the shortest form. And we know T20's hold is greater on the subconscious than the two longer forms. Everyone is wowed by the big hits and instant gratification.

His century at Trent Bridge was a joy to watch. Not least because, statistically at least, his threat should be reduced for another top-bat. It was only his fifth outright win on the market in 37 outings in the last two years. Now consider the records of Imam and Fakhar – 12 in 28 and 10 in 35 respectively.

So we know that Fakhar should be about 5/2 for honours. That's our marker. Anything bigger than that and we're away. We don't expect him to be any shorter than 11/4. Indeed, we'd probably be a little surprised if he was even as short as that.

Keen eye on Curran

Tom Curran's four-wicket burst took us by surprise at Trent Bridge. It probably shouldn't have done. His strike rate has always been healthy and it's now looking positively excellent at 26.8.

The likes of Jofra Archer, Adil Rashid and Mark Wood are all expected to be bigger in the betting for top England bowler but Curran might hold some value. The study sample is small but with three wins in 15 and one tie, it could be the start of a trend which the layers are slow to recognise.

For Pakistan, Hasan Ali started the series as value but as the matches have gone by, despite no outright win, his value has disappeared. Shadab Khan could come in for a game here but we don't expect there to be an edge on his price.

England – top bat two-year form wins/ties/matches

Bairstow 8 1t/37
Morgan 6/43
Root 6 1t/46
Roy 7/37
Ali 1/43
Stokes 5/29
Buttler 6 1t/42
Woakes 1/25

Top bowler two-year form wins/ties/matches
Plunkett 9 6t/31
Rashid 4 9t/44
Root 2t/46
Willey 1 2t/19
Stokes 1 4t/29
Woakes 4 4t/25
Wood 1 3t/29
Ali 3 4t/43
T Curran 3 1t/15
Archer t/2

Pakistan top bat two-year form wins/ties/matches
Fakhar 10 1t/35
Imam 12/28
Babar 5 2t/37
Haris 3/12
Azahal Ali 2/12
Shoiab 1 1t/36
Hafeez 2/24
Sarfaraz 2/35
Rizwan 1/7

Top bowler two-year form wins/ties/matches
Hasan 6 8t/31
Shadab 4 4t/31
Afridi 2 3t/12
Shinwari 5 1t/15
Amir 3t/18
Imad 4t/23
Ashraf 1 3t/22
Junaid 1 3t/18
Yasir 3t/8
Hasnain 2t/4

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