Six Nation Rugby
Six Nation Rugby 2008: Twickenham Torment for Wales?
Rugby returns to the excitement of the international arena this weekend, with the Six Nations getting underway at Twickenham on Saturday. England host Wales and are 1/8 favourites to defeat the Scarlets (9/2) and set up a campaign to rival the glories of the summer's World Cup.
England are only second favourites (2/1) to take the crown this year, and a 6/1 outside bet for the grand slam, but the Parisian antics of the 'grumpy old men' proved that Bryan Ashton's team cannot be underestimated.
The team taking to the field on Saturday may not however have much in common with the one that marched through to the World Cup Final. Jonny Wilkinson's experience and hero status could see him retain his place at fly-half, but he will have to fight hard to keep rising star Danny Cipriani on the bench through the tournament. Another Parisian star, Josh Lewsey, has been left out of the squad.
Elsewhere it is injury rather than renewal that threatens England's continuity: Mike Tindall's rib problem and Nick Easter's knee injury could keep them out, while Joe Worsley's neck woes rule him out of the first two games, along with Simon Shaw. On the plus side, World Cup revelation Paul Sackey has recovered from mumps and looks likely to light up Ashton's flank, while old-timer Mark Regan looks to have overcome a shoulder injury. Fitness permitting, Regan, Sackey, Tindall and Easter will still be starting their first England game since the World Cup final defeat to South Africa in Paris in October, meaning that England – as ever – could be unpredictable.
And their red-shirted opponents could also sport a host of fresh faces, as new coach Warren Gatland seeks to make his mark. At scrum-half injury-ridden Dwayne Peel could give way to the Ospreys' impressive Mike Phillips. James Hook could meanwhile steal Stephen Jones' outside-half jersey, while Jamie Roberts and Tom James are pressing experienced campaigners such as Shane Williams, Mark Jones and Lee Byrne for inclusion in the back line.
Renewal could be the order of the day for Wales, after a volatile World Cup Campaign saw the side sunk by south Pacific power play from Fiji. But Twickenham may not be the best place for the Welsh to start: a record 62-5 loss last year was a tenth consecutive defeat away to the English.
An English victory by another margin in excess of 51 points is only 18/1 but a lack of fluidity from a changed side could be more likely for the hosts, with a 6-10 point margin at 6/1 and an 11-15 points gap at 5/1. Jonny Wilkinson could meanwhile use the encounter to boost his bid to overtake Welsh legend Neil Jenkins as leading international points-scorer: Wilko is 4/1 second favourite to top-score in the tournament, behind Ireland's Ronan O'Gara (5/4).
Meanwhile Sunday will see France (1/2) open their account away to a confident Scottish side (13/8), with les bleus entering the tournament as 5/4 favourites and the 9/4 lead runner for grand slam glory.
The Scots showed promising form before losing to New Zealand in the World Cup quarter finals, and are largely unchanged. Edinburgh outside centre Nick de Luca is the only fresh face in the squad, while Scott Murray (lock) and Phil Godman (fly-half) have been dropped.
Meanwhile, new French coach Marc Lievremont has dropped World Cup warriors Jerome Thion, Clement Poitrenaud, Imanol Harinordoquy, Pierre Mignoni, David Marty and Sebastien Chabal, banishing the barbarian and others in order to make way for six uncapped players. The success of new props Julien Brugnault of Dax and Lionel Faure could determine whether the French scrum holds up to the challenge of winning a record third successive tournament – and a fifth in seven years.
Scotland have only beaten the French twice in 12 contests, including a 20-16 victory at Murrayfield in 2006. The Scots are 10/1 to win by less than five points again; the Gallic glory-chasers are 4/5 on to be winning at both half-time and full-time.