Guineas Betting
One of Britian's greatest races reaches a major milestone BEATING THE 2000 GUINEAS
* Practical Punting Monthly, Australia's leading horseracing magazine
The 2000 Guineas finds its home in Newmarket in Suffolk in the region of England known as East Anglia. A pretty market town, Newmarket, like many towns in England, has been around for so long that invariably at some point or other it will have figured at some key moment in England's history.
In Newmarket's case it was where a King's final defiant utterance was made on who should lead his army - himself or parliament. As King Charles I refused point blank to allow parliament to lead his army, the parliamentary deputation, sent from London, retreated back to the capital to deliver their news to Oliver Cromwell. Civil War immediately followed.
A newly-formed republic followed the Civil War but this did not last and once Cromwell had died, England acted quickly. Within a year of the Lord Protector's death, Charles I's son, Charles II, was invited to take his place on the throne. Once Charles II had begun his reign, he insured that every Englishman knew that the good times had returned and Newmarket was immediately resurrected as the epicentre of country fun. This was the moment when organised horseracing began to take its first formative steps, as rules for racing were drawn up and the first races were run at a reinvigorated Newmarket.
Given that the horse provided man with the fastest method of getting anywhere on land in the 16th century, it's not surprising that the sport of horseracing climbed to a new level of popularity. As the centuries passed, horseracing continued in the ascendant with the inauguration of new races such as the St Leger at Doncaster, and the Derby and Oaks at Epsom. Newmarket needed to create a race of its own and preferably one that would gain itself instant public attention.
Thus was born, at the turn of the 19th century, the 2000 Guineas. To Georgian society the name of the race said it all and created a buzz of interest from the outset. To offer the sum of 2000 guineas to the winner of a race was unheard of at the time. It was regarded as a staggering sum for most people and was roughly equivalent to in excess of £1 million today - or about $2.3 million dollars.
Because of its auspicious beginnings, the 2000 Guineas brought forth great horses and now have an honour roll that contains some of the great names of the English turf. Last year's victor Cockney Rebel added himself to the list and, in spite of his SP of 40/1, proved himself to be a no fluke winner by following up in the Irish equivalent at the Curragh a few weeks later.
So let's take a look at the key factors for the 2000 Guineas. Naturally enough our rules are drawn from past winners going back about 20 years, where a very high standard can be used to make an effective foundation for our analysis. But first, before we start, let me just remind you that it's probably wise to become conversant with the old imperial measurement used to mark distances in the UK. In short, 1 furlong=200m - so the Guineas' mile (8 furlongs) equates to 1600m. Right let's get down to business.
LAST START PERFORMANCE
You may find that the last start performance for an English 2000 Guineas' candidate will have happened either in its 2yo year or its 3yo year. These days the last run will often be in a contender's 2yo year. This alone emphasises just how important it is for a colt (or filly, though they rarely show up), to have good juvenile form. Either way the last start will need to have been a positive run and it's important because there is a great deal of consistency surrounding this one piece of form.
If we look at the last start for winners over the last ten years you will see that eight out of 10 of them had won. The only two that hadn't were last year's winner Cockney Rebel (3rd on last start as a 2yo) and King's Best, who had been 2nd in the Craven Stakes-Gr.3 as a 3yo. If you go back a further 10 years to 1988 you'll see that eight more Guineas' winners had won their last start.
Those that lost their last start had also performed well - one was 2nd in a four runner Listed event (Zafonic '93) and the other was 4th in the 3yo Guineas' trial known as the Greenham stakes-Gr.3. You'll notice that all three Guineas' winners who had losing last start performances were doing so as 3yos. According to history a Guineas' winner has a 30 per cent chance of losing on its first start as a 3yo as (a) it needs the run to get fit and (b) it is usually encountering a very small field making the trial much more of a sprint.
So, don't be too put off if a contender that has lost the only run of its 3yo career so far. Just be mindful that it will have to have put in some kind of semi-decent effort in that run. It will have needed to have achieved a TS and RPR of at least 85 and 107 respectively to be considered a chance, and must not be out of the first four placings in a pattern race losing by not more than three lengths.
Still, if a contender's last start had taken place as a 2yo you will find even more consistency. Nine Guineas' winners have had their final start as a 2yo and all bar 2007's Cockney Rebel had won their final start. This is a very high strike rate of course and should be heeded. Overall, the minimum RPR ratings achievement required will be a TS of 83 and an RPR of 94.
CAREER PERFORMANCE - THE 2YO CAMPAIGN
2000 Guineas' winners simply have to have run and won as 2yos. In fact, the Guineas' candidate must have 2yo form that fits the upward curve of progression as it races through its 2yo season - bearing in mind that the British/Irish 2yo season begins in March and ends in November and is strictly run on turf.
A Guineas' candidate can of course potentially race in just a small part of the 2yo season but, nevertheless, the candidate must have reached a certain level of achievement depending on what time of the year it is racing in. I feel that a Guineas' horse must have achieved some benchmarks before it can be truly considered as a chance.
Using RPRs as the scale of excellence then an RPR figure must have been achieved by a particular month of the year. A juvenile will have needed to have attained RPRs of 90 by the end of August, 104 by the end of September and 110 by the end of October. Overall though, a proper 2yo candidate will have needed to have achieved a figure of 94 by the end of its first racing season.
The Guineas' candidate will also have needed to have made an impact at a particular distance, too, and that distance is 7 furlongs (1400m). There are very few Guineas' winners that had not won at a distance of 7 furlongs or more either as 2yos or as 3yos. In fact there are only two - last year's winner Cockney Rebel (again) and 1999's Island Sands. Ideally though, a win at 7 furlongs is very desirable....p2
