Guineas Betting
p1CAREER PERFORMANCE - SUMMARY
In a nutshell, a preferred Guineas' candidate will have these characteristics:
o A win at 7f or more.
o Achieved an RPR of 94 by the end of its 2yo career.
o If a candidate has race at 3yo then it will have needed to have achieved an RPR of 108 on its only start as a 3yo.
o Won within its last three starts.
o Won at least half of its juvenile starts - while Cockney Rebel again proved an exception to this rule I would still consider this to be an important benchmark.
BARRIERS (UK = STALLS OR STARTING STALLS)
Newmarket's 2000 Guineas is a mile that is not run around a turn. In the tradition of the previous four centuries of racing, horses at Newmarket break from a line and are asked to run over a straight towards the finish. The barriers, known as starting stalls in the UK, form the line from which the horses break - as such it is little bit reminiscent of the straight at Flemington.
Readers may recall my breakdown of the Lightning stakes where I'd stated that horses breaking from barriers down a straight course are less likely to be disadvantaged by the draw itself. The reason is largely because there is no jostling after the start when creating the "Indian file" dynamic necessary for racing around bends.
If this means that Newmarket should offer a fairer draw than most tracks then I'd say that that would be partially true; but British observers of racing will always say that there may be a bias towards either the upper or lower part of the draw and are always trying to work out where that might be when observing races run earlier in the day (or previous day) at the same distance.
However, I feel that British observers are less aware than Australian racing observers about where the pace of the race might form and they are not always aware that they should factor this in instead. Aussies should therefore get one step ahead of their British cousins by trying to work out where the pace will form. If you can work out where the stronger pace is likely to develop then its likely that you'll find out where a horse is going to be best advantaged, high or low.
BREEDING
Not since 1991 when Mystiko was sired by Secreto, has an English Derby winner sired a 2000 Guineas' winner and prior to that there is only Doyoun in 1988 - who was sired by Mill Reef. It's worth noting too, that both these Derby winners were bred in the USA, a speed-orientated nation when it comes to breeding, so it's worth drawing attention to the fact that the winter favourite for this year's Guineas, New Approach, is sired by the Irish-bred Derby winner Galileo - and the Irish breed Derby winners with much more stamina in mind.
It's just possible that New Approach, judging by the contribution made from both sire and dam, is slightly too stoutly bred to be a true Guineas' winner and it may be that he owed his success in the significant seven furlong 2yo race the Dewhurst stakes-Gr.1, to soft ground and the double-figure field.
His form prior to that were all Irish victories that might have been owed to the simple fact that he outclassed all of the small-field opposition he faced in Ireland using front-running tactics. I concede that it may be clutching at straws to pick on New Approach's pedigree as a source of trouble, as his form speaks volumes, and I'm not saying that he isn't a huge threat either, however, put simply, I feel his breeding could work against him if the ground were to come up dry.
Still, with regard to the important dosage profile of a Guineas' winner, they require powerful dosage profiles imbued with both speed and stamina. Speed to cope with the likely fast ground (Newmarket's soil drains rapidly of rain water) and stamina to cope with two things: the big field and the stiff uphill finish that begins 400m from home.
Unfortunately, as far as dosage profiles are concerned, then the average Guineas' winner's profile is too contrasting to make any firm judgements. However, the profile should contain a level of class that is reflected by the number of dosage points contained in the profile total. Ensure that a contender has a minimum of 12 points.
POSSIBLE CONTENDERS
This year's Guineas could turn out to be very strong indeed as there seemed to be a lot of good juveniles racing last year. At the time of writing (Feb 2008), the market is headed by New Approach at 2/1 followed by Raven's Pass 7/1, Fast Company 8/1, Ibn Khaldun 10/1, Rio De La Plata 10/1, Henrythenavigator 14/1, Myboycharlie 14/1 with 16/1-plus quoted for quite a few others.
I've already discussed New Approach as having a favourite's chance, and while he's a very strong candidate he could still be vulnerable as the son of an Irish-bred Derby winner.
Still, if he does not make the racetrack then the race could be far more open as long as the other main contenders show up. Raven's Pass has a pedigree that suggests he's a sprinter but Fast Company looks to have form and pedigree that could still threaten New Approach.
I think Rio De La Plata also profiles quite well and seems to have a "2nd up" tendency in his form, too. My contacts in the UK did feel that he looked considerably better in the paddock when being stepped up after runs that had happened recently. This means he probably is the real deal but might very well need to go for a Guineas' trial to put him at his peak. If Godolphin don't recognise this and send him straight to the Guineas, then I'd be wary of his chances of success.
Still, it would mean that he'd have a better chance in the Irish 2000 Guineas a few weeks later as long as the Curragh doesn't turn into a bog.
Aidan O'Brien's pair Henrythenavigator and Myboycharlie should not be discounted either and make plenty of appeal at their respective prices. Henrythenavigator in particular has a pedigree befitting of a Guineas' winner and, what's more, his form may not tell his whole story.
His only attempts at Group 1 company were on very soft ground and as Newmarket is very likely to come up as "Good" or firmer we could see Henrythenavigator becoming a major threat. The only drawback is that he didn't quite get that all important winning 7f form in the bag but his big field Coventry win at six furlongs, and a close second in soft ground in a Group 1 at 7f, might be enough to suggest that he'd cope with the Newmarket mile but probably on a sound surface.
Well, that's the wrap-up for this year's 2000 Guineas but there is one other thing I ought to tell you. 2008 will see the 200th running of 2000 Guineas so make sure you stay up late on Saturday 3rd May to see some history in the making.
This article is from Practical Punting Monthly, Australia's favourite leading horseracing magazine. Winning Secrets revealed - to get FREE instant access to their punting e-books, tools and specialist downloads designed to help you win and increase your profits visit: www.practicalpunting.net
Copyright 2008 Equestrian Publishing Pty Ltd
This article may be reprinted provided no part thereof is edited in any way and this resource box is included, and you get our permission first by contacting us at: info@practicalpunting.net
