Australian Open Bet
Australian Open Bet ~ Blue Square's Stephen Irvine looks ahead to this year's Australian Open
The first, and usually one of the most enjoyable Grand Slam events of the year, the Australian Open starts in the early hours of Monday morning as Rafael Nadal defends the title he won last year.
Nadal certainly has plenty to do if he is to retain his crown, and having closed last year in shocking fashion with a 0-3 record in the round robin stage of the World Tour Finals, he looked in desperate need of some time off. Having had that time off, the Spaniard reached the final of the Doha Open a couple of weeks ago, but having had a fairly easy run to get there (world number 29 Viktor Troicki was the highest ranked player he faced), the way he crumbled against Davydenko in the final was alarming.
Nadal walked through the first set 6-0, but the Russian took the second on a tie-break and then closed out the match in the third as questions over Rafa's waning strength and stamina - the physical attributes that have made him such a force - began to surface again, and he has plenty to prove in 2010. He opens his campaign against the 78th ranked Peter Luczak, surely an easy starter for him, and it will be interesting to see how he goes in Melbourne - Blue Square currently offer 10/3 about Nadal to retain his title. If all goes to plan, Nadal and Andy Murray will meet in the quarter-finals.
Now down to number 5 in the world, Murray chases the first Grand Slam title of his career off the back of a productive, though injury-hit 2009, and he is another one with plenty to prove as he aims to get back into the top 2 in the world. The Scot gets his campaign underway against an as yet unknown qualifier, and we have Murray specials available now. For those feeling particularly confident that this is his title to win, Blue Square offer 100/1 for Murray to win without dropping a set!
A market on Murray's Stage of Elimination is also available, with either a first or second round upset available at 12/1, a run to the quarter or semi-final priced at 7/2, and a losing appearance in the final 11/2. He is a 6/1 shot to win the title. That is sure to be well backed - Murray always is, but for me the value must lie elsewhere.
2008 Australian Open champion and World No. 3 Novak Djokovic is in the second quarter of the draw, on paper the easiest section of the 128-man field, and he has a gentle opener against the little-known Daniel Gimeno-Traver of Spain. He should have a good run to at the least the quarter-finals here, and with that crucial experience of winning a Grand Slam under his belt, the 11/2 available for him to win it is surely a better punt than Murray at 6/1. Don't forget that Nole was favourite to win the World Tour Finals in December, so scintillating was his form at the close of last year, and on his favourite hard courts, it really would be a shock to see him depart before the semi-finals.
Nikolay Davydenko is another man in fine form, his brilliant performances on the way to the World Tour Finals lighting up the O2 Arena, and having despatched Nadal, Federer and del Potro along the way, he certainly won't fear anybody on the hard courts of Melbourne. As previously mentioned, the Russian already has a title to his name this year with the Doha Open, and he'll be raring to go when he kicks his campaign off against a qualifier. Davydenko is 8/1 for the title, and that does look a solid bet.
No preview of a Grand Slam would be complete without a tip on a huge-priced outsider (remember Tsonga's run to the final here in 2008 having started as a 250/1 shot), and it's another Frenchman who looks an interesting proposition here. Richard Gasquet is often known as 'Baby Federer', so technically sound is his all-round game, and it would appear that his slide to 53rd in the rankings has been purely down to mental fragilities. He opens with a tough, but certainly winnable match against Mikhail Youzhny, with the winner going on to face either Hajek or Ginepri in the next round. It would be no surprise to see him do that, and maybe with his drop out of the top 50, he'll rediscover the drive that had him universally touted as a future number 1 when he first burst onto the scene. At 125/1, Gasquet looks well worth a few quid each-way, and I'll have a sneaky couple of quid on that myself before Sunday!
Completing the round up of the pre-tournament markets, Blue Square offer a range of Specials aside from the Murray Specials already mentioned, including a quote of evens about there being a new Men's champion, betting on the shortest and longest completed matches, naming the finalists, and a very interesting 7/2 about all 4 seeds to reach the semi-finals.
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